Incidents:
The company released its 2023 annual report. During the year, the company achieved revenue of 15.560 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, and net profit to mother of 74.734 billion yuan, an increase of 19.16% over the previous year. Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 45.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.80%, and net profit to mother of 21.888 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.33%. The company's previous announcement on production and operation for 2023 was announced.
Investment summary:
The volume and price of Maotai liquor increased by more than 10%. In 1935, over 10 billion dollars led to a high increase in the number of wines in the series. For the whole year, Maotai achieved revenue of 126.589 billion yuan, 17.39% year over year. The split price showed sales volume of 42,100 tons, +11.10% year over year, and the tonnage price was 3.062 million yuan/ton, +5.66% year over year. The increase in tonnage prices is expected to be mainly driven by the increase in the price of Maotai liquor at the end of the year and the release of non-standard products. Among them, Q4 Maotai Liquor achieved revenue of 39.320 billion yuan, +17.60% year-on-year. The revenue of the 23-year wine series was 20.630 billion yuan, +29.43% year-on-year, with sales volume of 32,000 tons and a tonnage price of 662,000 yuan. The sales/tonnage price was +2.94%/+25.73% respectively. It is expected that the tonnage price will increase significantly, driven by Maotai 1935. Among them, Q4 series wine revenue increased 48.19% year-on-year, driving overall fourth quarter revenue to exceed expectations. For the year, Maotai's 1935 revenue exceeded 10 billion yuan, Prince Liquor exceeded 4 billion yuan, and Han Sauce and Guizhou Daquu and Lai Mao's revenue exceeded 1 billion yuan. The main focus of the series was on large single products and the tonnage price driven growth, with significant structural upgrades.
The proportion of direct sales increased further. iMaotai increased year-on-year, and the revenue growth rate of other direct sales channels also surpassed the company's overall revenue growth rate.
The company's direct sales/distribution channels achieved revenue of 672.33/79.986 billion yuan respectively, respectively. Driven by i Maotai, direct sales increased to 45.67%, up 5.77pct year on year; i Maotai achieved sales of 22.374 billion yuan, +88.29% year over year; i Maotai achieved sales of 22.374 billion yuan, +88.29% year over year, and i Maotai accounted for 33.28% of direct sales, up 9.21pct year on year. In addition to i-Maotai, other direct sales channels achieved revenue of 44.859 billion yuan in 23 years, accounting for 30.47% of the company's revenue. Revenue was +19.64% year-on-year, and the growth rate exceeded the company's overall growth rate.
Q4 Direct revenue was 21.026 billion yuan, +20.17% year over year, down from the 44.93% growth rate in the first three quarters. It is mainly estimated that i Maotai's volume has slowed significantly and other direct sales channels are growing steadily.
The year-end contract debt ring increased slightly less compared to the same period. Annual sales revenue of 163.7 billion yuan plus year-end contract debt of 14.126 billion yuan, a total increase of 13.87% year-on-year. Among them, year-end contract debt decreased by 1,346 billion yuan year-on-year, increased by 2,731 billion yuan in the Q4 quarter, and decreased by 904 million yuan over the same period. It is expected to be mainly affected by the Spring Festival's delayed repayment pace compared to last year.
Sales expenses increased slightly, profitability increased year-on-year, and base wine production capacity and reserves were further increased. The annual sales expenses rate increased by 0.50 pct to 3.09% year on year. It is expected that there will be a slight increase in investment and sales personnel, mainly through channels and promotion of wine series. The management expense ratio was 6.46%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.61 pct. It is expected that the company's gross sales margin increased 0.09 pct year over year, net profit margin increased by 0.24 pct, and profitability further improved due to the expansion of the revenue base. The annual production capacity of Maotai liquor was increased by 52.50 tons, the actual output was 57,200 tons, the production capacity of the series wine was increased by 6,400 tons, and the actual output was 42,900 tons. At the end of the year, stocks of semi-finished wine containing base wine were 279,800 tons, an increase of 5.94% over the previous year. The company has set a target growth rate of 15% for 24 years, which is consistent with the target growth rate for 23, and sets a positive trend.
Investment advice: The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 1746.89 billion yuan, 2011.90 billion yuan, 229.512 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of 87.461 billion yuan, 101.250 billion yuan and 115.78 billion yuan respectively, with earnings per share of 69.62 yuan, 80.60 yuan and 92.17 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE is 23.87X, 20.62X and 18.03X, respectively, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The recovery of the consumer scene is slow, and the development of channels and new products falls short of expectations