全球天然气价格低位反弹 供求矛盾仍未完全扭转

Global gas prices have rebounded from low levels, and the contradiction between supply and demand has not been completely reversed

Golden10 Data ·  Apr 12 10:01

Global gas prices rose to varying degrees in 2024, which involved supply-side factors such as a decline in US exports and the suspension of production of Russian projects, as well as complex interactions on the demand side, such as increased procurement in Asia and high European inventories. Despite a recovery in Asian demand, the current situation of global oversupply still exists, limiting the room for gas prices to rise.

Since entering 2024, international natural gas prices have been running low. With the end of the traditional heating season in the northern hemisphere, some regions have begun a new annual injection cycle. Lower international natural gas prices have boosted procurement enthusiasm in some regions, which has also led to a certain rebound in international natural gas prices. As of April 8, the US HenryHUB price was 1.844 per million British thermal units per million British thermal units per dollar, up 17.08% from the low during the year, the Dutch TTF price was 27.908 per megawatt/euro, up 21.69% from the low during the year, and the spot arrival price in Northeast Asia was 9.582 per million British thermal units per million British thermal units per dollar, up 20.06% from the low point during the year.

In terms of price, gas prices in the US, the main supplier, and Asia and Europe, the main consumer countries, have all risen to varying degrees. This is mainly due to the combined influence of various factors.

Influencing factors:

Supply side

1. US President Joe Biden announced the decision to suspend the construction of a new liquefied natural gas terminal project to deal with the climate crisis. Although the move mainly affects long-term projects, it provides some support for short-term market sentiment.

2. The overhaul of some production lines at the US Freeport export terminal has led to a decline in US LNG exports. Additionally, LNG production at the Corpus Christi plant in Texas and the Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana have also recently declined to varying degrees. According to relevant data, at the beginning of April, the average flow of natural gas to the seven major liquefied natural gas export plants in the US fell to 1.19 billion cubic feet/day, down from 1.31 billion cubic feet/day in March. A monthly record of 1.47 billion cubic feet/day was set in December last year.

3. EQT, the largest gas producer in the US, said that due to the continued slump in natural gas prices, the company will cut gas production by nearly 1 billion cubic feet per day. ChesaPeakeEnergy (after merging with SouthWestern Energy), which is about to become the largest gas producer in the US, is also planning to cut its fuel production by about 30% in 2024 due to recent low prices. Other energy companies, AnteroResources and ComstockResources, are also planning to reduce drilling this year.

4. Russia's largest LNG exporter, the Novatek Arctic 2 project, was forced to stop production due to sanctions.

5. Western Australia's hurricane weather affected LNG exports for part of the time.

Demand side

1. The sharp drop in international natural gas prices has boosted Asian buyers' procurement of spot LNG resources. In particular, due to the impact of low temperatures in Japan, LNG inventories have fallen to a low level in recent years, and demand side procurement intentions have increased. In addition, China, India, South Korea, Thailand, and the Philippines all have varying degrees of interest in purchasing in the international spot market.

2. European gas stocks are still at an all-time high. According to GIE statistics, as of March 27, the EU gas storage reserve ratio was 58.81%, up 2.91 percentage points from the same period last year. However, due to the impact of the situation in the Red Sea region, the flow of LNG resources from Asia to Europe was forced to take a detour to the Cape of Good Hope, which had a more obvious impact on users in the Eastern Mediterranean. Strong prices in the Eastern Mediterranean region also indirectly supported gas prices throughout Europe.

Overall, many favorable factors have supported the volatile rebound in international natural gas prices in 2024. In particular, the recovery in demand in the Asian market provides strong support for the global gas price level. Judging from Kpler shipping schedule data, as of April 9, the global LNG trade volume this year was 79.947 million tons, of which 67.69% was flowing to Asia, an increase of 0.22 percentage points from January to April last year, and a decrease of 8.19 percentage points from January to April last year. The European region's relatively sufficient inventories made European users' demand for gas procurement insufficient. This part of the resources also went to Asia. As well as the Latin American market.

However, despite a certain recovery in Asian demand, the current situation where global supply exceeds demand has not been completely improved, and LNG stocks in China, South Korea, India and other countries are still high, which to a certain extent inhibits the full release of procurement demand. Therefore, despite a recent recovery in international natural gas prices, the overall level is still at a historically low level. It is expected that the global supply of LNG will remain sufficient for some time to come, making it difficult to change the state where low prices stimulate shipments. As a result, there is still limited room for an increase in international natural gas prices in the short term. Market participants need to pay close attention to changes in supply and demand as well as the impact of geopolitical factors.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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