Hot news

• A number of senior Federal Reserve officials stated that not cutting interest rates in the near future is a foregone conclusion, and the “top three” have not released an eagle

A number of senior Federal Reserve officials believe that, based on the latest data, there is no need to adjust monetary policy in the short term, but it is expected that interest rates will still be cut later in the year. US New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams, who is known as the “top three in the Federal Reserve,” and enjoys permanent FOMC voting rights, said that there is no need to adjust monetary policy in the short term; monetary policy is in good condition and is not hawkish. The chairman of the Richmond Federal Reserve said that inflation data heightens doubts about changes in the inflation trend and is somewhat reluctant to announce the Federal Reserve's victory against inflation.

• Are Wall Street giants starting to be more pessimistic? Deutsche Bank, Bank of America: The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates until December

With the release of US inflation data for March, all of Wall Street is re-evaluating the Federal Reserve's policy path. Goldman Sachs's forecast for the Fed to cut interest rates was adjusted from one to five times, and then changed to two. Barclays has now returned to the Federal Reserve's position of cutting interest rates only once this year. Bank of America postponed the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from June to December. Deutsche Bank economists have also taken a sharp turn. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates once in December this year. Earlier this month, the bank anticipated that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates four times this year.

• US PPI recorded the biggest increase in 11 months, but inflationary pressure cooled in some key categories

The US producer price index (PPI) recorded the biggest year-on-year increase in 11 months in March, but the prices of some categories of inflation indicators valued by the Federal Reserve did not rise much. The US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that PPI increased 2.1% in March compared to the same period last year, up 0.2% month-on-month, lower than expected. However, the performance of some subcategories in the PPI report may give investors and Federal Reserve officials a slight sigh of relief. Indicators such as healthcare and portfolio management weakened in March. Notably, these categories will be included in the calculation of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index.

• The IMF warns that the world is facing a decade of weakness: inflation is likely to continue, and debt levels are too high

The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued an early warning on the two major problems of high inflation and high debt. On April 12, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in her speech that the IMF plans to slightly raise the forecast for global economic growth in the report to be released on April 16, but the mid-term forecast for global economic growth is still far below the historical average, and the forecast is only slightly higher than 3%. At the same time, she warned that the inflation problem has not been completely solved, that most countries have too high debt levels, and that without policy adjustments, the world will usher in a decade of slow and disappointing growth.

• OPEC Monthly Report: Oil consumption exceeds expectations, and future actions will be taken depending on market conditions

OPEC said in its monthly oil market report that it will closely monitor the oil market in the coming months to ensure a “healthy and sustainable market balance” during the expected surge in demand. OPEC maintains an optimistic forecast for global oil demand growth this year. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.7 million b/d per year in the third quarter. OPEC stressed that several recent key data show that oil consumption seems to be more intense than expected, and some agencies even expect oil prices to rise to 100 US dollars per barrel in summer.

• The ECB has sent a clear signal to cut interest rates! The market is betting that the first interest rate cut will be in June

The ECB kept the Eurozone's three benchmark interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings and issued a more clear “interest rate cut” signal, indicating that if inflation in the Eurozone continues to decline, it may be ready to cut interest rates at any time. After the ECB announced the interest rate decision, the market's expectations for the ECB's interest rate cut in June continued to strengthen, and the euro exchange rate weakened in response. The ECB said in a statement: “If the Central Bank Management Committee's latest assessment of inflation prospects, potential inflation dynamics, and the strength of monetary policy transmission can further strengthen its confidence that inflation is moving closer to the target in a sustained manner, then it would be appropriate to lower the current level of monetary policy restrictions.”

Resumption of US stock trading

• The NASDAQ closed up 1.68%, Amazon hit a record closing high; the price of gold continued to hit a record high

US stocks closed, with the Dow down 0.01%, the NASDAQ up 1.68%, and the S&P 500 up 0.74%.

Popular technology stocks generally rose. Apple and Nvidia rose more than 4%, Google rose more than 2%, Amazon and Tesla rose more than 1%, and Amazon's stock price reached a record high in closing.

Most popular Chinese securities rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.07%. Bilibili rose more than 4%, Manbang rose more than 2%, and Xiaopeng Motors, Pinduoduo, JD, and Weibo rose more than 1%.

Furthermore, gold reached another record high. Spot gold broke through the previous high of 2365.25 US dollars/ounce, and once broke through the 2,370 US dollars/ounce mark, continuing to hit a record high. COMEX's June gold futures rose 1.03% to $2372.7 per ounce, setting a new closing record.

• Apple closed up more than 4% and plans to fully update the Mac product line. The M4 chip is designed to enhance artificial intelligence functions

$Apple (AAPL.US)$It closed up more than 4% to $175.04, the biggest one-day increase since May 5, 2023. According to the news, Apple is preparing to comprehensively reform the entire Mac product line. The next generation of products will be equipped with chips developed by Apple itself to enhance artificial intelligence functions. Apple released its first Mac computer equipped with an M3 chip 5 months ago. According to people familiar with the matter, it is now close to mass production of the next M4 processor. It is reported that there will be at least three major versions of the new chip, and Apple hopes that every Mac model will be equipped with this kind of chip.

• Earthquake impacted Micron Technology DRAM supply

$Micron Technology (MU.US)$It said on Thursday that the April 3 earthquake in Taiwan will have an impact on its dynamic random access memory (DRAM) supply and is expected to reduce the quarterly supply by about a medium single-digit percentage. The company has four factories in Taiwan, which plays an important role in the global chip supply chain, so the earthquake raised concerns in the market about potential supply disruptions. Micron said that DRAM production has not fully resumed after the earthquake, but emphasized that this will not affect its long-term DRAM supply capacity. DRAM is widely used in data centers, personal computers, smartphones, and other computing devices.

• Morgan Stanley plummeted by more than 5%, and its wealth management department was allegedly investigated by the US government

$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$At one point, it plummeted by more than 7% in the intraday period, and eventually closed down 5.25%. Due to reports that US regulators have stepped up their scrutiny of how the bank can prevent potential money laundering from wealthy customers. The Wall Street Journal quoted unnamed people familiar with the matter as reporting that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Monetary Supervisory Service, and other departments of the Treasury are investigating whether the New York-based bank has taken sufficient measures to verify the identity of high-risk customers. According to the report, the SEC and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Administration of the Treasury requested information on customers outside the US that have attracted their attention and understand Morgan Stanley's response to this issue.

• Amazon surpassed $189, the highest closing price in history

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$It closed up 1.67% to $189.05, breaking the all-time high of $188.654 in intraday history set on July 13, 2021, and reaching a market capitalization of $1.96 trillion. On July 8 of that year, Amazon closed at $186.57, the highest in market history.

• Rivian and Lucid hit record lows, Ford's price cuts raise concerns about electric cars

Ford's drastic price cut for electric pickups raises electric vehicle concerns, electric vehicle startup stocks$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$und$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$The group hit a record low. The price war across the electric vehicle industry is a major concern for investors as it affects profit margins. For startups like Rivian and Lucid that aren't yet profitable, this could further delay the time they can start making profits. At the close, Rivian fell nearly 7% to $9.57, falling below $10 for the first time since listing in November 2021; Lucid fell 5.66% to $2.5.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• Beishui bought more than HK$400 million from Meituan and sold SMIC and Xiaomi

On April 11 (Thursday), Southbound made a net purchase of HK$7.15 billion in Hong Kong stocks.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)$Received net purchases of HK$948 million, HK$456 million and HK$428 million respectively;

$SMIC (00981.HK)$,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$Net sales were HK$188 million, HK$103 million and HK$38.94 million respectively.

Today's attention

Keywords: China's import/export annual rate, trade balance; University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index; Komo Financial Report

On Friday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce the monthly rate of the import price index for March, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for April, and the inflation rate forecast for the first year of April; China will announce the annual import/export rate for March and the trade balance for March.

In terms of financial events, Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Collins delivered a speech at the New York Economic Club, and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered a speech.

In terms of financial reports,$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$,$Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$,$Citigroup (C.US)$Wait for large financial institutions to release financial reports before the market today.

In terms of IPOs, US stocks$YY Group (YYGH.US)$,$UL Solutions Inc (ULS.US)$It will be available today.

Futubull Chen read:

Don't expect to be right every time; if you make a mistake, the sooner you stop the loss, the better.

—Bernard Baruch

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