分布式光伏、分散式风电及节能等业务有望加速发展。2023 年公司各季度经决策拟开展的分布式光伏项目装机容量13.9/14.8/22.3/38.1 万千瓦，投资总额6.1/6.6/9.1/13.9 亿元，季度环比提速。根据2023 年年报董事长致辞，基于公司的发展战略，公司董事会已审议通过公司在2024 年开展固定资产投资约80 亿元，重点投向分布式光伏、分散式风电及节能等业务。投资规模较2023 年的30 亿大幅增长。Core views:
The company discloses its 2023 annual report. In 2023, we achieved operating income of 2.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% after adjustment, and net profit to mother of 310 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.9% after adjustment. Among them, the fourth quarter achieved operating income of 790 million yuan, an increase of 4.9% over the previous year, and net profit to mother - 40 million yuan.
Biomass projects may continue to affect company operations. According to the 2023 annual report, the revenue of the integrated resource utilization sector fell 39.6% due to factors such as inadequate subsidies for biomass projects, high fuel prices, and the discontinuation of most units for maintenance in the fourth quarter. China Southern Power Grid Comprehensive Energy (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd., which mainly operates and manages biomass comprehensive resource utilization projects, lost 280 million yuan for the year, and Guangxi Nanneng Changling Clean Energy Co., Ltd. lost 70 million yuan for the year. The company is simultaneously carrying out loss control and strategic exit of biomass projects. We expect the 2024 sector to continue to be a drag on operations.
Businesses such as distributed photovoltaics, decentralized wind power, and energy saving are expected to accelerate development. The distributed photovoltaic projects to be carried out by the company in each quarter of 2023 have an installed capacity of 13.9/14.8/22.3/38.1 million kilowatts, with a total investment of 6.1/6.6/9.1/1.39 billion yuan, which is accelerating quarterly. According to the Chairman's speech in the 2023 Annual Report, based on the company's development strategy, the company's board of directors has reviewed and approved the company's fixed asset investment of about 8 billion yuan in 2024, focusing on distributed photovoltaics, decentralized wind power and energy saving businesses. The scale of investment is a significant increase from the $3 billion in 2023.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. Dragged down by the biomass sector, the 2024-2026 net profit forecast was lowered to 4.9/81/950 million yuan, up 57%/67%/17% year over year, and EPS was 0.13/0.21/0.25 yuan/share, respectively. In the context of the country's “double carbon”, fields such as energy saving and distributed photovoltaics still have a lot of room for development. The company should focus on and cultivate the two basic business markets of industrial energy saving and building energy saving. Based on the company's planned exit from the loss-making biomass sector in '23, we expect the exit to be completed in '24, our 25-year performance will no longer be affected by it. We will use the 2025 valuation and give a 25 times PE valuation, lower the reasonable value to 5.35 yuan/share, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Biomass project withdrawal falls short of expectations, promotion of energy-saving projects falls short of expectations, contract energy management model risks, financial costs exceed expectations, etc.
