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There's Reason For Concern Over Ningbo Zhongbai Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600857) Massive 26% Price Jump

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 12 06:28

Ningbo Zhongbai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600857) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 10.0% over the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Ningbo Zhongbai's P/S ratio of 1.7x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Multiline Retail industry in China is about the same. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:600857 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry April 11th 2024

What Does Ningbo Zhongbai's Recent Performance Look Like?

Ningbo Zhongbai certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing its revenue at a really rapid pace. The P/S is probably moderate because investors think this strong revenue growth might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Ningbo Zhongbai will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Ningbo Zhongbai's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 31%. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 62% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 24% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this information, we find it interesting that Ningbo Zhongbai is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What Does Ningbo Zhongbai's P/S Mean For Investors?

Ningbo Zhongbai's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Ningbo Zhongbai revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Ningbo Zhongbai that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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