特高压中标大幅提升，为业绩持续增长提供支撑根据我们的统计，公司2023 年国网特高压设备/输变电设备分别实现中标约79.28/53.58 亿元，同比+913.79%/+63.37%，2024 年第一批输变电设备实现中标约11.65 亿元，市占率13.3%。我们认为2024 年特高压建设将保持高景气，核准开工4 条直流线路。由于特高压建设周期1.5-2 年，我们预计公司2023 年特高压订单有望为公司24-25 年业绩持续增长提供支撑。Incidents:
The company released its 2023 annual report, and achieved operating income of 20.848 billion yuan in 2023, +12.36% year-on-year; realized net profit of 885 million yuan, +42.99% year-on-year. Among them, 23Q4 achieved operating income of 7.202 billion yuan, +34.52% year-on-year, and +62.72% month-on-month; realized net profit of 364 million yuan, +144.32% year-on-year, and +266.63% month-on-month.
23Q4's performance reached a record high. The increase in the proportion of high-margin products led to performance growth. The company achieved revenue of 7.202 billion yuan and net profit to mother of 364 million yuan in 23Q4, all of which hit record highs in a single quarter. For the full year of 2023, the company's main business gross margin was +1.48pct year on year, and net profit margin was +0.85pct year on year. Among them, switching revenue was +21.53%, gross margin was +2.19pct year over year, transformer revenue was +40.31% year over year, and gross margin was -0.89pct year over year. We believe that the increase in the company's performance is mainly due to an increase in the share of revenue from high-margin switch products, which has led to an increase in the company's overall profitability.
The number of UHV bids increased dramatically, providing support for continued growth in performance. According to our statistics, the company won about 79.28/5.358 billion yuan for State Grid UHV equipment/power transmission and transformation equipment in 2023, respectively, +913.79%/+63.37%. In 2024, the first batch of power transmission and transformation equipment won the bid of about 1,165 billion yuan, with a market share of 13.3%. We believe that UHV construction will continue to be booming in 2024, and we have approved the commencement of 4 DC lines. Due to the 1.5-2 year UHV construction cycle, we expect the company's 2023 UHV order to support the continuous growth of the company's 24-25 performance.
Smart industrial parks are expected to help companies reduce costs and increase efficiency
The company's comprehensive expense ratio in 2023 was 13.7%, +0.6pct year-on-year. Among them, the management fee rate was 6.15%, -0.32pct year over year. In November '23, the Science and Technology Innovation Building in Xidian's Smart Industrial Base High-tech Park was capped, and subsequent tenders entered the full construction phase. The company will fully rely on park construction to build 48 digital intelligent production lines, comprehensively promote digital transformation, upgrade R&D and design, manufacturing, intelligent inspection, operation and maintenance services and operation management capabilities, and promote the reduction of the company's cost rate.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 228.21/258.73/29.287 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.47%/13.37%/13.19%, net profit to mother of 11.71/14.08/18.48 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.24%/20.27%/31.30%, EPS 0.23/0.27/0.36 yuan/share, respectively, and 3-year CAGR of 27.82%. Since the company's State Grid UHV high school standard provides support for continued growth in performance, with reference to comparable company valuations, we gave the company 27 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 6.2 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: UHV construction progress falls short of expectations; raw material prices fluctuate