Incident: The company released a performance forecast for the first quarter of 2024. It is expected to achieve revenue of 737 million yuan in 24Q1, +76% year over month; it is expected to achieve net profit of 210 to 240 million yuan, up 10.4 times year on year and +4% month on month in the median calculation; the estimated deducted non-net profit is 210 to 235 million yuan, up 751 times year on year and +4% month on month.
The 24Q1 interconnect chip revenue was 695 million yuan, a record high in the first quarter, +68% year over year and +0.3% month over month.
The sales revenue of the 24Q1 Jinjue server platform product line was about 39 million yuan. 24Q1's DDR5 RCD chip shipments continue to grow. The industry expects the penetration rate of DDR5 memory modules to exceed 50% in 2024, and will continue to increase in 24. The continued penetration of DDR5 will help the company keep growing sales revenue for DDR5 related products. After a 23-year inventory adjustment cycle for DDR4 products, 24Q1 began to see downstream customer demand to replenish inventory, and the inflection point was reached.
Driven by AI servers and high-performance computing, PCIe Retimer and MRCD/MDB began large-scale shipments. The company's PCIe Retimer chips have been successfully introduced into the AI server procurement projects of mainstream cloud computing and Internet vendors at home and abroad. 24Q1's PCIe Retimer chips shipped about 150,000 units, more than 1.5 times the annual shipment volume in '23. PCIe Retimer chips are expected to become a new growth point for the company in the future.
Benefiting from the demand for higher bandwidth memory modules driven by AI and high-performance computing, with world-leading technical strength and R&D progress, server high-bandwidth memory modules with Lanqi Technology's MRCD/MDB chips have begun large-scale trials at mainstream cloud computing/Internet vendors at home and abroad. 24Q1's MRCD/MDB chip revenue exceeds 20 million yuan. CKD chips have now taken the lead in trial production in the industry, and future shipments are expected to increase further.
Profit forecast: The company's 24-26 revenue is estimated at 43.27, 63.63, and 8.287 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit of 15.19 billion yuan, 22.67 billion yuan, and 2,920 billion yuan. The rapid development of AI-related applications will drive growth in demand for computing power, storage capacity, and capacity, continue to be optimistic about the company's development prospects in the field of high-speed connectivity, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: product development risks; increased industry competition; risk of DDR5 penetration falling short of expectations