Core views:
23Q4 The company's net profit to mother decreased 8% month-on-month, in line with expectations. The company disclosed its annual report for the year 23. According to the company's financial report, 23Q4 achieved operating income of 6.6 billion yuan, -12% month-on-month, net profit of 568 million yuan, -8% month-on-month, basic earnings per share of 0.12 yuan/share, -8% month-on-month, net operating cash flow of 1.7 billion yuan, +10% month-on-month, and a balance ratio of 57.78%, compared to -1.95PCT at the end of 23Q3. Q4 The company's performance declined slightly month-on-month or due to a decline in sales of aluminum products, operating revenue fell by 917 million yuan, and operating costs were reduced by only 707 million yuan. In '23, high-purity aluminum was affected by the export tariff policy, which led to a decline in sales volume, and gross sales profit of about 180 million yuan was not achieved.
23Q4 aluminum prices and electrolytic aluminum costs both increased month-on-month, and it is estimated that the gross profit of tons of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. According to Wind, 23Q4, the average price of SHFE aluminum rose 2% month-on-month to 18,923 yuan/ton, the average price of alumina rose 4% month-on-month, the average price of anode in northwest China fell 2% month-on-month, and the average price of thermal coal in Hami remained flat. It is estimated that the gross profit of a ton of electrolytic aluminum is +88 yuan/ton month-on-month.
The company's electrolytic aluminum production was stable in '23, and it is expected to increase production of bauxite and alumina in '24 to reduce the cost of electrolytic aluminum and enhance its ability to guarantee resources. According to the company's financial report, the company's raw aluminum, alumina, and anode production increased by 1%, 38%, and 17% year-on-year to 117, 212, and 600,000 tons, respectively. In 24, the bauxite mine in Guinea is planned to be mined and shipped. Guangxi bauxite strives to complete the procedures and achieve ore mining. The overall plan is to produce 116, 235, 55, and 3 million tons of raw aluminum, alumina, anode, and bauxite.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 0.72/0.72/0.74 yuan/share. Considering that the company has a stable low cost advantage, improved resource guarantee capacity, and the gradual release of aluminum foil for energy batteries, the company is given 15 times PE in 2024, with a corresponding reasonable value of 10.75 yuan/share, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. The macroeconomy fluctuated greatly, and aluminum prices fell sharply; costs such as coal prices and bauxite prices rose sharply; certification and production of new battery aluminum foil projects fell short of expectations.