The decline in the US stock index narrowed slightly after the Federal Reserve's minutes. The S&P and NASDAQ closed down less than 1%, and the Dow still fell more than 1%, falling to the closing low of nearly two months. Among the “Seven Sisters” of technology, Tesla fell the most, while Nvidia fell nearly 2% at the beginning of the session and rose nearly 2% at the beginning of the session. Meta, which fell more than 2% at the beginning of the session, turned up; the chip stock index fell more than 1%, and Intel fell nearly 3%. China's stock index stopped two consecutive days. NIO fell more than 2%, but Ali rose more than 2%.
After the CPI was announced, the two-year US Treasury yield rose by more than 20 basis points, and the ten-year yield rose above the key level of 4.5% to a new five-month high; the US dollar index jumped more than 1% to a new five-month high; the offshore RMB fell more than 200 points to 7.26 in the intraday period; and gold fell more than 1% in the intraday period, falling to a record high. The yen fell 153 on Thursday to a new low since 1990.
After the CPI, Bitcoin fell below a new daily low of 68,000 US dollars, then hit the 70,000 mark at a later point. Crude oil stopped two consecutive declines and closed up more than 1%, close to a five-month high. Lunxi rose nearly 3% to a new 14-month high. Nickel rose eight times in a row, while Luntong left its two-year high for the time being.
The heavy US inflation data released on Wednesday exceeded expectations for the second month in a row: the CPI growth rate in March surpassed expectations to 3.5%. The core CPI did not stabilize in February as expected, but instead accelerated to 3.8%, and the growth rate was higher than expected for the third month in a row.
CPI inflation, which has been heating up for months, has crushed investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. After the CPI was announced, swap contract pricing showed that the first rate cut expected by traders was postponed from September to November, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates by about 40 basis points this year. Traders that guarantee overnight financing rate (SOFR) options are even betting on cutting interest rates only once in December this year. Goldman Sachs postponed the expected time to cut interest rates for the first time this year from June to July, and is expected to cut interest rates only twice during the year.
After the CPI was announced, the price of US Treasury bonds dived and the yield rose by at least 10 basis points. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield not only hit the high level since November last year, but also rose above the 4.50% key level that could further rise 5.0%. The interest-rate sensitive two-year US bond yield rose more than 20 basis points in the intraday period; the US dollar index jumped to a high level since November last year; US stocks opened sharply lower. The major stock indexes fell more than 1% at the beginning of the session, but a few tech giants rebounded, falling back about 10% from their high level more than two weeks ago and fell into the adjusted zone Meanwhile, Nvidia turned around after falling nearly 2% at the beginning of the session Up; Meta, which launched a new AI chip, smoothed out a decline of more than 2% in early trading and turned upward.
The results of the 10-year treasury bond bid completed by the US Treasury at noon were bleak, reflecting weak demand, and the final interest rate spread was the third largest on record. The increase in ten-year US Treasury yields widened, rising further above 4.50%, and stood at the highest level for nearly five months. The minutes of the meeting released at noon show that almost all Federal Reserve officials at last month's meeting believed that if economic development meets expectations, this year would be appropriate to cut interest rates and consider starting to slow down the downsizing “soon.” The decline in the US stock market narrowed slightly, with the S&P and NASDAQ falling less than 1%.
On the foreign exchange market side, as the US dollar strengthened after the CPI was announced, and non-US currencies fell rapidly below 152.00 against the US dollar, which was previously thought to trigger Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market. Early trading in Asia broke 153.00 on Thursday, hitting a new low since 1990 after a lapse of less than two weeks, making the market more wary of the risk of Japan taking action. However, some commentators say that unlike Japan's intervention when it hit 152 in 2022, the yen easily fell below 152 this time, indicating that the Japanese government's pain threshold may be higher.
Bitcoin, which dived on Tuesday, turned down after the CPI was announced. It once fell below a new daily low of 68,000 US dollars. Since then, it has regained its rebound momentum. At the end of the session, US stocks once hit a new daily high of 70,000 US dollars, rebounded more than 2,000 US dollars from a daily low, and began rushing closer to Monday to the high level since reaching a record high of nearly a month ago.
Among commodities, gold quickly fell after the CPI was announced. It fell more than 1% in the intraday period, falling back after hitting a record high for eight consecutive days. At one point, it fell nearly 2% from the intraday record high set on Tuesday. In contrast, the rise and fall of international crude oil fluctuated even more. The US Department of Energy announced last week that US EIA crude oil inventories did not drop by more than 2 million barrels as expected, but instead increased by more than 700,000 barrels. After the data was released, crude oil declined in the market and hit a new low. Afterwards, some media learned that the US believes that Iran or its agents are about to launch large-scale missile attacks or drone attacks on Israeli military and government targets. Oil prices are rapidly rising in the intraday period, oil has recovered the 90 US dollar mark, and both have rebounded more than 2% from the low level in the day, close to the five-month high level set last Friday.
The decline in the US stock index narrowed slightly after the Federal Reserve minutes, and Tesla fell the most among the “Seven Sisters” of technology, Nvidia and Meta turned up
The three major US stock indexes collectively opened lower for the first time this week, falling more than 1% at the beginning of the session. At a new low in midday trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 580 points or 1.5%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 1.3%, and the S&P 500 index fell nearly 1.4%. After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released, the S&P and NASDAQ declines gradually narrowed to less than 1%, and the Dow fell less than 500 points.
In the end, the three major indices collectively closed down for the first time this week. The Dow closed down 422.16 points, or 1.09%, to 38461.51 points, falling for three consecutive days until the closing low since February 14. S&P, which rebounded slightly on Tuesday, closed down 0.95% to 5160.64 points, approaching the closing low since March 15 set last Thursday. After two consecutive gains, the NASDAQ index, which had been high since April 1, fell by 0.84% to 16170.36 points.
The small-cap stock index Russell 2000, which is mainly value stocks, closed down 2.52%, outperforming the market and falling back to its low level since March 18 after three consecutive gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed down 0.87%, falling after rebounding to a high level since April 1 on Tuesday. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology components in the NASDAQ 100 index, fell more than 1% at the beginning of the session, closed down 0.58%, and also fell after rebounding on Tuesday.
Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, energy closed with a rise of only nearly 0.4% on Wednesday, leading the decline in real estate, leading the decline by more than 4%, utilities falling more than 1.7%, and finance, medical care, materials, and non-essential consumer goods where Tesla is located all falling more than 1%.
Including Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Google's parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook's parent company Meta, and Tesla, the tech giants “Seven Sisters” fell sharply at the beginning of the session. The decline narrowed in midday trading, and some turned up during the intraday session. Tesla fell nearly 3.5% in early trading, closing down 2.9%. It fell to a high closing level since March 27, which was refreshed for two days. It fell for the first time since Musk announced that it would launch autonomous taxis in August.
Among the six major FAANMG technology stocks, Microsoft, which fell more than 1% in early trading, closed down 0.7% and fell back after rebounding on Tuesday; Apple closed down 1.1%, falling back to a low level since October 26, 2023; Alphabet closed down 0.3% to say goodbye to the high closing history created by three consecutive days of gains on Tuesday; while the Meta market fell more than 2% in early trading and turned up nearly 0.6% in early trading, closing up nearly 0.6%, and did not continue to fall below the closing record high set last Friday; Amazon closed nearly 0.2%, falling back to the record closing level since July 3rd High position; Netflix closed up less than 0.1%, not It continues to fall below the high level since November 2021 set by last Friday's rebound.
Chip stocks generally declined, outperforming the general market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and semiconductor industry ETF SOXX fell more than 1% in early trading, closing down nearly 1.7% and more than 1.8%, respectively, and fell after three consecutive days of gains. Among chip stocks, Nvidia, which fell for two consecutive days from Tuesday to close on March 4, fell more than 1.9% at the beginning of the session, then quickly turned up, rising 2.4% in early trading, closing up 2%; TSMC's US stock, which announced that revenue for the first quarter had increased by more than 16% in early trading, rose 0.5% in early trading; at the close, Intel fell nearly 3%, AMD and Qualcomm fell more than 2%, Arm fell more than 1%, and Micron Technology fell nearly 0.4% in early trading.
Most AI concept stocks continued to fall. By the close, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) fell 7%, C3.ai (AI) fell more than 5%, BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell nearly 4%, Palantir (PLTR) fell nearly 2%, Adobe (ADBE) and Oracle (ORCL) fell more than 1%, while the ultra-microcomputer (SMCI), which turned up early trading, rose nearly 0.5%, and Astera Labs (ALAB), which sells data center interconnect chips, turned up more than 2% after early trading.
Most of the popular Chinese securities fell. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose 0.7% at the beginning of the session, then quickly turned down, closed down 0.4%, and fell after two consecutive days of gains. Among the new car builders, at the close of the market, NIO Auto fell more than 2%, Xiaomi Fan fell nearly 2%, Ideal Auto fell 0.6%, and Xiaopeng Motor rose nearly 2%. Among other individual stocks, at the close of trading, Station B fell more than 2%, Pinduoduo and NetEase fell more than 1%, Baidu fell nearly 2%, and JD fell 0.1%; while Ma Yun posted on Alibaba's intranet that Alibaba had returned to a healthy growth trajectory, Alibaba, which had risen nearly 3% at the beginning of the market, closed up more than 2%, and Tencent fans rose 0.6%.
In terms of European stocks, the pan-European stock index, which declined on Tuesday, rebounded. After the US CPI was announced, it turned down, hitting a new intraday low in the past month. The review said that the market's focus has shifted to the monetary policy decision announced by the European Central Bank on Thursday. The European Stoxx 600 Index closed up less than 0.2%, breaking out of its closing low since March 20, which was refreshed on Tuesday. Major European stock indexes failed to close at the same time. German, British, and Italian stocks, which fell back on Tuesday, rebounded, and French and Spanish stock indexes fell for two and four consecutive days, respectively.
In various sectors, banks and oil and gas closed up 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively. The technology market declined and eventually closed up 0.4%, while interest-rate sensitive real estate led the decline by nearly 1.6%, and utilities fell nearly 1.3%. Affected by media claims that it bid 4 billion to 5 billion euros to buy 2i Rete Gas from a major domestic competitor, Italgas, fell 2.8%, and another Italian company, Enel, fell about 2.2% after an explosion at a hydroelectric power plant in northern China. Among other individual stocks, British supermarket giant Tesco is expected to boost the company's profits further by 3.3%; chocolate producer Barry Callebaut surged 11% after announcing an improvement in revenue for half a year to ease market concerns about inflationary pressures such as rising cocoa prices.
Two-year US Treasury yields rose by more than 20 basis points, and ten-year yields rose above the key level of 4.5% to a new high in the past five months
The price of European treasury bonds fell, and yields followed the rise of US bonds after the US CPI was announced. By the end of the bond market, the yield on the UK 10-year benchmark treasury bond was about 4.14%, up about 12 basis points during the day; the yield on 2-year British bonds was about 4.33%, up about 14 basis points during the day; the yield on the benchmark 10-year German treasury bond was about 2.43%, up about 6 basis points during the day; and the 2-year German bond yield was about 2.96%, up about 8 basis points during the day.
The yield on the US 10-year benchmark treasury bond fell below 4.33% before the US CPI was announced. After the CPI was announced, it quickly rose above 4.50%. After the results of the 10-year US bond bid sale were released in mid-day trading, breaking the high level since November 14, 2023, it rose by about 20 basis points during the day, about 4.54% at the end of the bond market, and about 18 basis points during the day.
The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, fell 4.72% and fell to 4.7134% on the new day. After the CPI was announced, it quickly rose above 4.90%. After hitting a new high since November 28, 2023 for two consecutive days, it also reached a new high since November 14 of the same year. At the end of the bond market, it was about 4.97%, rising about 23 basis points during the day. Yields on other maturities rebounded after the two-day continuous rise ended on Tuesday.
By the end of the bond market, the 5-year US Treasury yield was about 4.60%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield was about 4.62%. The intraday 5-year yield had exceeded the 30-year term. For the first time since September 2023, the 30-year and 5-year US Treasury yield curves were inverted.
The US dollar index jumped more than 1% to a new high in nearly five months, and the yen hit a new low since 1990, Bitcoin fell below 68,000 US dollars and then rose to 70,000
Before the US CPI was announced, the ICE dollar index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies including the euro, fell below the daily low of 104.03 before the US stock market. After the CPI, it quickly turned up. US stocks rose above 105.00 in early trading and rose to 105.30 in midday trading, breaking the high level since November 14, 2023, and rising 1.1% intraday.
By the close of the US stock market on Wednesday, the US dollar index was slightly below 105.20, rising about 1% during the day, broadly closing its strong rise on Tuesday; the Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against ten other currencies, rose nearly 0.8% during the day and rebounded to the same high level since February 13.
Among non-US currencies, after the US CPI was announced, the yen quickly fell below 152.00, and hit a new low since 1990 in less than two weeks. The US dollar rose above 152.00 against the Japanese yen after the CPI was announced, and the US stock market hit a new high since 1990 after March 28, breaking the high level since mid-1990, rising 0.8% during the day. US stocks closed slightly below 153.00. On Thursday, the Asian market rose above 153.00 and reached a new high of 153.20 against the US dollar and the British pound; after the US CPI was announced, EUR/GBP dollars The euro fell rapidly. The euro fell below 1.0730 in midday trading, breaking the low level since last Tuesday, April 2. The pound fell 1.2520 in early trading, breaking the low level since 2 or 5 days ago. They all fell about 1.2% during the day, and US stocks fell slightly more than 1% during the day.
The offshore renminbi (CNH) rose to 7.2358 against the US dollar in the medium to short term in the Asian market. It remained flat at the high level since March 26, which was refreshed on Tuesday. The US CPI quickly fell below 7.25 after the announcement. After falling below 7.26 in midday trading, the US stock market fell to 7.2641, breaking the low since April 2, and fell 258 points during the day. At 4:59 Beijing time on April 11, the offshore renminbi was reported at 7.2,624 yuan against the US dollar, down 241 points from the end of Tuesday's session in New York. After three consecutive days of gains, it fell on the second day of the last seven trading days.
After the US CPI was announced, Bitcoin (BTC) rapidly fell below 68,000 US dollars. The US stock market fell below 68,000 US dollars before the market, breaking the low level since last Saturday, April 6. US stocks returned to 68,000 US dollars after opening, and returned above 69,000 US dollars in the middle session. At the end of the session, they rose above 70,000 US dollars in the short term, rising more than 2,000 US dollars and up nearly 4% from the daily low. The US stock market closed close to 70,000 US dollars. It has risen more than 1% in the last 24 hours, and is close to the high level since March 14, when it rose above 72,700 US dollars on Monday.
Crude oil stopped falling two times in a row and was close to a five-month high
International crude oil futures declined a few times in the intraday period, and eventually ended up rising. US stocks declined after the release of US EIA data in early trading and hit a daily low. US WTI crude oil fell below $84.60 and fell nearly 0.8% during the day. Brent crude oil was close to $88.80, falling nearly 0.7% during the day. After US stocks rallied and turned higher in midday trading, US oil was close to $86.40, up more than 1.3% during the day, and oil rose above $90.60, up nearly 1.4% during the day.
In the end, crude oil rebounded after two consecutive days of decline and began to approach the closing high since October 20 last year, which was set last Friday. WTI crude oil futures for May closed up $0.98, or nearly 1.15%, to $86.21 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures for June closed up $1.06, up more than 1.18% to $90.48 per barrel.
US gasoline and natural gas futures continued to rise sharply. NYMEX's May gasoline futures closed up about 0.9% to 2.7816 US dollars/gallon, rising for 2 consecutive days, beginning to approach the high level since August 2023, which was refreshed at $2.7942 last Thursday; NYMEX's May natural gas futures closed up 0.69% to 1.8850 US dollars/million British thermal units, rising for four consecutive days, breaking the high level since the March 6 report of $1.929.
Lunxi rose nearly 3%, and after leaving the CPI for the last two years, gold fell more than 1% and fell to a record high
London basic metals futures mostly continued to rise on Wednesday. Renxi, which rose more than 4% on Tuesday, closed up nearly 3%, leading the way for three consecutive days, hitting a new high since the end of January last year for three days, and rising for seven consecutive days. Lunn nickel rose for eight days, hitting a new high in four weeks. Lunzinc and lun lead rose for 3 consecutive days. Lunzinc hit a new high since April last year on the 2nd, and lun lead hit a new high since the end of January.
However, after rising for two days, Luntong fell to a high level since June 2022, which was refreshed for two consecutive days. Lunlu, which closed down on Tuesday, closed down slightly, leaving the high level since late February last year, which had been set for four consecutive days, and fell for the first time in the last eight trading days.
New York gold futures reached a new daily high of 2378.1 US dollars in the Asian market. After the US CPI was announced, US stocks fell to a new daily low of 2337.1 US dollars at the beginning of the session, falling nearly 1.1% during the day. US stocks turned up in early trading and then fell slightly later. Both spot gold did not hit a record high in the last nine trading days for the first time.
After the US CPI was announced, spot gold quickly fell below $2,330. The US stock market fell to a new daily low of below $2,320. It fell about 1.4% during the day, down nearly 2% from the historical intraday high set above $2,365 on Tuesday. After the opening of the market, US stocks narrowed nearly half of the intraday decline, and US stocks initially weighed $2,330.
In the end, both futures and spot gold fell to the closing record high for three consecutive days, with no new closing records on the second day of the last 11 trading days. COMEX June gold futures closed down 0.59% to $2348.4 per ounce. At the close of the US stock market, spot gold was above $2,330, falling more than 0.8% during the day.
Editor/Jeffrey