One thing we could say about the analysts on Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:NRGV) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.
Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering Energy Vault Holdings, is for revenues of US$275m in 2024, which would reflect a chunky 19% reduction in Energy Vault Holdings' sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 43% to US$0.38. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$369m and losses of US$0.29 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
The consensus price target fell 17% to US$5.04, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Energy Vault Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 19% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 116% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Energy Vault Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at Energy Vault Holdings. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Energy Vault Holdings.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Energy Vault Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.