① Overall, US copper futures rose steadily in 2024, with an increase of nearly 10% during the year; ② Analysts said that the sharp rise in copper prices showed no sign of slowing down, and improvements in supply risks and energy transition demand prospects continued to drive the rise of this metal.
Financial Services Association, April 11 (Editor Zhao Hao) On Wednesday (April 10), the price of copper futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange once rose to 4.3350 US dollars per pound. The main link price hit the highest level since mid-January 2023, but under pressure from US CPI data, it has now fallen back to 4.2,700 US dollars.
Overall, US copper futures rose steadily in 2024, with an increase of nearly 10% during the year. Also, the price of 3-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) once rose to $9,477 per ton, a new high since June 2022.
New York copper futures main link price daily chart
Wall Street banks are generally bullish on the outlook for copper prices this year. Analysts said that the sharp rise in copper prices shows no sign of slowing down, and improvements in supply risks and energy transition demand prospects continue to drive the rise of this metal.
The demand for copper has always been a reliable primary indicator of the health of the global economy, and is therefore known as “Dr. Copper.” Last week, US factory activity increased for the first time since September 2022 in March, and China's industrial recovery also added impetus to global economic recovery.
Earlier this week, Citibank analysts said copper had begun the “second long bull of the century,” and Citi expects the metal to continue to rise in the coming months, reaching $10,000 per ton by the end of the year, and climbing to $12,000 in 2026.
The research report added that the forecast of 12,000 US dollars per ton is based on slightly higher demand. If there is a strong cyclical recovery, copper may even experience an explosive market in the next two to three years, and the price may rise by more than two-thirds to 15,000 US dollars per ton.
In addition to being relevant to global growth prospects, copper is also critical to the energy transition ecosystem, and is an essential material for manufacturing new energy vehicles, power networks, photovoltaics, and wind turbines. The Bank of America said that copper is “at the center of the energy transition, and people can strongly feel that mine supply is not growing enough.”
The Bank of America reports that as the US and European economies hit bottom and rebound, demand should rebound. Coupled with the increase in demand brought about by the energy transition, the copper market may be in short supply this year. Bank of America analysts raised the 2024 copper price target to $9,321, higher than the previous forecast of $8,625.
But not everyone believes that copper prices will maintain their current trend this year. Colin Hamilton, a commodity analyst at BMO Capital Markets, believes that the commodity market will always find ways to mitigate prices.
Hamilton said, “If the price is too high, it will hurt demand. If the price of copper is four times that of aluminum, the market will look for alternatives to copper.”