Incident: The company released its annual report for 2023, with revenue of 3.663 billion yuan, YoY +35.39%; net profit to mother of 911 million yuan, YoY +11.36%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 886 million yuan, YoY +16.25%.
Looking at a single quarter, Q4 revenue was 1,044 million yuan, YoY +25.62%, QoQ +12.20%; net profit to mother was 255 million yuan, YoY +10.92%, QoQ +10.53%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 256 million yuan, YoY +18.00%, QoQ +16.86%; gross profit margin for the single quarter was 40.47%, +3.88pcts month-on-month.
IGBT module loading continues to increase, and automotive-regulated SiC MOSFETs continue to break through. 1) Vehicle IGBT module: Equipped with more than 2 million new energy vehicles, a significant year-on-year increase (over 1.2 million units in 22 years). Among them, the seventh-generation micro-groove 750V IGBT modules were loaded in large quantities, and the 1200V IGBT module added several fixed points for 800V models. 2) SiC: SiC MOSFET modules were loaded in large quantities, and several 800V project targets were added. The company's own SiC MOSFET chips have been verified by many customers and shipped in batches.
Overseas business is growing rapidly. A second overseas R&D center was established in Zurich; automotive IGBT modules were delivered in large quantities at Tier 1 in Europe, and a number of new main motor controller projects were added. In '23, the subsidiary Star Europe had revenue of $311 million, +227% year over year; revenue from other export businesses was $77 million, +71% year over year.
In addition to automobiles, downstream revenue was also rising steadily: 1) Industrial control and power revenue in '23 was 1,279 billion yuan, +15.64% year over year. 2) Total revenue from new energy sources was 2.156 billion yuan, +48.09% year-on-year. The wind and solar storage business is growing rapidly. The seventh-generation micro-groove IGBT modules are installed in batches in ground-based photovoltaic power plants, large-scale energy storage, and overseas power plants such as North America. 1200V and 650V high-current single tubes are used in batches for industrial and commercial photovoltaics and energy storage; 3) The revenue of inverter white goods and other industries was 203 million yuan, an increase of 69.48% over the previous year.
Fund-raising projects are progressing steadily, and production capacity guarantees are strong. Three projects, including power chip development and industrialization for high-voltage specialty processes, SiC chip development and industrialization, and automated transformation of power semiconductor module production lines, are all progressing over 75%. They are all expected to be ready for use around November '24, providing sufficient impetus for future development.
Profit forecast: The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 11.43 billion yuan, 14.35 billion yuan, and 1,710 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 22.1, 17.6, and 14.8 times, respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: Production line construction falls short of expectations, downstream demand falls short of expectations, and market competition intensifies.