Incident: The company released a performance forecast for the first quarter of 2024. It is expected to achieve revenue of 803-826 million yuan, an increase of 27.5%-31% over the previous year. It is expected to achieve net profit of 510-534 million yuan, an increase of 23%-29% over the previous year, and realized deducted non-net profit of 513-537 million yuan, an increase of 33%-39% over the previous year.
Comment:
The opening performance of the first quarter was in line with expectations: according to the median revenue announced by the company, the company's Q1 revenue growth rate was 29.3% year over year. 2023Q1 was the first quarter where social activity fully resumed before the epidemic. After the Spring Festival ended in January 2023, in 2-3 March 2023, the social situation ushered in a strong recovery in consumption, and consumption in the medical and aesthetic industry also experienced a retaliatory rebound. On the basis of the high base of 2023Q1, the company's revenue growth rate in the first quarter was still close to 30% year-on-year, so we think the company started in 24 well.
By product category, we expect the revenue growth rate of Q1's solution and gel products to be between 20% and 30%. Among gel products, the “wet white+like life” regenerative combination is expected to grow at a rate of more than 30%. We believe that as Rusheng enters more and more medical and aesthetic institutions, the company's regenerative product growth is expected to accelerate.
The way to break the game requires continuous enrichment, refinement, and balance of the “map for beauty”: we believe that the current market's concerns about Aimeike mainly focus on two aspects. First, the overall growth rate of the medical and aesthetic industry is slowing down, the hyaluronic acid racetrack is becoming more crowded, and the revenue scale of the “Hi Body” series continues to rise, causing the market to worry about the future growth of “Hi Body”; 2. The market is concerned about the downgrade consumption of recycled products and the intensification of competition brought about by Jiangsu Wu Zhong. We believe that to boost the market's confidence in the medium to long-term growth of Aimeike, the best solution is for the company to continuously launch new products, enrich its product portfolio, get rid of excessive dependence on hyaluronic acid, and continue to enrich and improve its layout in the beauty industry. Judging from past development history, we believe that Aimeike is an enterprise that is good at establishing a competitive advantage through differentiated products in the market. At the same time, judging from the operation of the hyaluronic acid injection product “Bonida”, Aimeike also has a corporate culture that is deeply involved in the industry. We believe that with the company's layout in botulism, optoelectronics, and fat loss, the company's medium- to long-term development prospects are still worth looking forward to and looking forward to.
Leading medical and aesthetic companies maintain a “buy” rating: We maintain the company's 2024-2026 revenue forecast of 40.49/54.87/6.892 billion yuan, and maintain the 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 25.22/33.21/4 155 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding EPS is 11.66, 15.35, and 19.19 yuan, respectively. The current stock price is 25, 19, and 15 times PE, respectively. We believe that the company's current valuation level is low compared to its ability to grow, and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Competition in the industry intensifies, consumer purchasing power recovery falls short of expectations, risk of changes in industry policies, risk of commercial promotion of new products falling short of expectations.