Incident: SAIC Motor Group released its March 2024 production and sales report: March Group wholesale sales volume of 381,000 units, +8.4% YoY, +83.5%; 2024Q1 Group's cumulative wholesale sales volume of 834,000 units, -6.4% YoY; SAIC Volkswagen wholesale 90,000 vehicles in March, +11.1% YoY, +42.9% month-on-month; 2024Q1 sold 248,000 vehicles, +9.6% YoY; SAIC-GM wholesale in March, -1.3% YoY, +359.3%; 2024Q1 A total of 112,000 units were sold, -40.0% year over year; SAIC passenger cars sold 79,000 units in March, -4.0% year on year, +139.9%; 2024Q1 sold 163,000 units, -17.3% year on year; SAIC-GM-Wuling sold 114,000 units in March, +26.0% year on month, +52.0% month on month; 2024Q1 sold 224,000 units, year over year.
Joint venture sales are picking up, and Roewe and Wuling New Energy have performed brilliantly. SAIC Motor Group's wholesale sales volume in March was 381,000 vehicles, benefiting from improved industry demand and increased joint venture discounts, and sales recovered significantly from month to month. By brand, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM-Wuling performed well in March, with wholesale sales +11.1%/+26.0% year-on-year respectively. On the structural side, sales of new energy passenger vehicles in March were 85,000 units, +30.0% year over month, and +39.1% month over month; the cumulative sales volume of the 2024Q1 was 210 million units, +47.9% year over year, outperforming the industry. SAIC Roewe, Volkswagen ID, and GM Wuling sold 2.6, 1+, and 42,000 new energy vehicles respectively in March. The Roewe D7 and Wuling Starlight successfully achieved a breakthrough of 10-15 thousand yuan, and the market performance was good; in March, Bingo sold 13,000 units, and the performance was relatively stable.
Zhiji L6 went public and broke through again in the high-end market. In March 2024, Zhiji sold 3,000 units, and the cumulative sales volume in 2024Q1 was 10,001 units. Affected by increased competition in the 20-30,000 yuan price band, LS6's sales performance declined slightly. On April 8, the Zhiji L6 with an ultra-fast charging solid-state battery began pre-sale. The pre-sale price is 23-33,000 yuan. The new car is based on the same quasi-500V/quasi-900V silicon carbide dual platform as the Zhiji LS6. The CLTC has a battery life of over 1,000 km. The entire series is equipped with a digital chassis, four-wheel steering, lidar, Nvidia Orin X chip, and a digital intelligent management center. The new car may go on sale on May 13. The penetration rate of pure electric vehicles in the price range of 200,000 yuan in 2023 is 28.3%. Excluding Tesla, the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles is only 15.4%. There is plenty of room for independent breakthroughs. We believe L6 is expected to seize market share with strong product strength and price advantages.
It continues to be popular overseas. Global ocean and sky. In March 2024, overseas sales volume was 105,000 units, +8.8% year on year, and 2024Q1 overseas sales reached 227,000 units, -11.8% year over year. The MG brand continued to perform well in Europe. Subsequently, SAIC Motor will launch 14 new smart electric “global vehicles” in overseas markets, further expanding the overseas product matrix, which is expected to help further increase overseas sales.
Investment suggestions: The company has solid underlying technology, excellent platforming capabilities, and maintains profit forecasts. It is estimated that 2024-2026 revenue is 7,678/8,023/828 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 154.50/169.33/18.455 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 1.33/1.46/1.59 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 15.31 yuan/share on April 8, 2024, PE, 10 times, respectively, to maintain the “recommendation” ” Ratings.
Risk warning: downside risk in the car market; downside risk of joint venture brands; launch of new electric smart models falling short of expectations; overseas expansion falling short of expectations.