The industry data sector continued to grow rapidly, maintaining the “purchase” rating of 2023 revenue of 86.314 billion yuan (yoy +12.73%), net profit of 240 million yuan (yoy +18.30% after restatement), and deducted non-net profit of 191 million yuan (yoy +12.59% after restatement). Both the return home and deduction were higher than the median value in the forecast range. 23Q4 revenue was 19.767 billion yuan (yoy +12.61%), and net profit to mother was 73.414,900 yuan (yoy +12.52%). Revenue from the industrial data sector also increased by 16%, and continued to grow rapidly. Expected 24-26 EPS 0.88/1.11/1.40 yuan. According to the segmented valuation, the 24E industry data service sector has revenue of 962 million yuan. Comparable companies average 24E 6.4xPS (Wind), giving 24E 6.4xPS; it is estimated that steel and silver e-commerce will contribute 155 million yuan in net profit to listed companies in 24 years. Comparable companies will average 24E22.9xPE (Wind), giving 24E 22.9xPE, with a target price of 30.08 yuan, “buy”.
Industry data: Data products continue to be updated, and it is expected that the 2023 industrial data service revenue will continue to grow rapidly at 801 million yuan, an increase of 16.0% over the same period, and a three-year compound growth rate of 18.9%.
Among them, data subscription revenue was 439 million yuan, an increase of 4.8%, a three-year compound growth rate of 17.7%; business promotion revenue was 186 million yuan, up 21.2%; conference and training revenue was 97 million yuan, an increase of 90.1%; and research and consulting revenue was 58 million yuan, an increase of 24.7%. The company has a good data and team foundation. By the end of 2023, it had built 22 major industry databases, more than 150 segmented application databases, involving more than 8,000 commodities. In 2023, new products such as an automobile database were created, and a commodity industry knowledge map and policy database were built. There were 3,258 employees in the data sector in '23, an increase of 5%. The company continues to promote innovation in data products, and the industrial data sector may continue to grow rapidly.
Trading sector: Settlement volume grew rapidly, continuing to contribute to the company's profit in 2023 steel trading service revenue of 85.432 billion yuan, an increase of 12.7%. The settlement volume of the steel and banking platform in 2023 was 164 million tons, an increase of 20.1%. The platform settlement volume grew rapidly, and the influence of the industry increased. Consignment transaction revenue was 2,268 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.6%, and supply chain service revenue of 83.164 billion yuan, an increase of 16.6%. The main business entity in the company's trading sector is the subsidiary Steel and Silver E-Commerce. The company's net operating cash flow in 2023 was 112 million yuan, a decrease of 90.3%, mainly due to the subsidiary increasing capital investment in the supply chain business. In 2023, steel and silver e-commerce's net profit attributable to the company's shareholders was 320 million yuan, an increase of 17.3% over the same period.
The trading sector continues to contribute steadily to the company's profits.
Actively grasping industry changes is expected to benefit from data factor/AI industry development companies actively seizing data element industry opportunities, and have signed strategic cooperation agreements with the Shanghai Digital Exchange and Shenzhen Data Exchange. In terms of AI technology, in 2023, the company completed the development of the 1.0 version of the “Steel Master” vertical language model for the commodity industry, and successfully developed the “Little Steel” digital intelligent assistant based on the “Steel Master”'s ability to generate three scenarios based on the commodity industry's trade, analysis and consulting, and content generation. We believe that the company may benefit from the development of the data factor/AI industry based on data and scenario cards.
Risk warning: The risk that the expansion of industrial data services falls short of expectations, and the risk that steel and silver e-commerce transaction volume will decline.