23 年公司利润出现较大降幅：公司23 年数控刀具业务实现收入5.79 亿元，同比下降9.98%，销量8773 万片，同比下降11.41%，由于产能利用率下降导致毛利率出现下降，23 年数控刀具毛利率40.42%，同比下降7.1pcts。硬质合金业务实现营收4.45 亿元，同比增长9.98%，但毛利率也下降了5.3pcts，导致公司盈利能力下降，23 年净利率16.17%，同比下降6.77pcts。occurrences
On April 9, 2024, the company released its annual report for the year 23, achieving operating income of 1,026 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.73%; net profit to mother of 166 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.43%.
reviews
The company's profit declined significantly in '23: the company's CNC tool business achieved revenue of 579 million yuan, down 9.98% year on year, and sales volume of 87.73 million pieces, down 11.41% year on year. Gross margin declined due to declining capacity utilization. The gross profit margin for CNC tools in '23 was 40.42%, down 7.1 pcts year on year. The tungsten carbide business achieved revenue of 445 million yuan, up 9.98% year on year, but gross margin also fell 5.3 pcts, leading to a decline in the company's profitability. Net interest rate in '23 was 16.17%, down 6.77 pcts year on year.
We believe that the company is expected to usher in many positive changes in 24 years, and we are optimistic about the growth of 24 years+turnkey:
The company actively lays out overseas markets, and a higher average export tool price is expected to drive an increase in the overall average price: the company achieved overseas sales revenue of 140 million yuan in 23, of which CNC tool export revenue was 111 million yuan, accounting for 19.27% of CNC tool revenue. The development of export business has begun to have a significant impact on the company's CNC tool sector, and exports are one of the important factors driving the company's future growth. At the same time, the average price of exported CNC tools is higher. The average price of exported CNC tools in '23 was 10.1 yuan/piece, which is higher than the company's overall average price. The increase in export share will also drive the company's average blade price increase.
The tool package program has entered the batch promotion and replication stage, and is expected to make a greater contribution to performance in 24 years: in 23, the company accelerated the development of tool package solutions for key customers and key scenarios, obtained a BMW crankshaft processing project, established a benchmark case for tool processing solutions in the automotive industry chain, formed a standard solution system in the fields of automobiles, 3C, aerospace, wind power, medical devices, etc., and entered the batch promotion and replication stage. In '24, it is expected that orders will gradually be converted into revenue in '23, and at the same time, the ratio of blade production is expected to increase, making a greater contribution to performance.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The company is expected to achieve net profit of 2.08/2.46/283 million yuan from 24 to 26, corresponding to the current PE15X/13X/11X, considering the growth space of the tool industry. At the same time, the company's overseas going+turnkey business in 24 is expected to contribute more growth in performance and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Domestic substitution falls short of expectations, overseas growth falls short of expectations, and there is a risk that the ban on restricted stock sales will be lifted.
