Hot news

• How many times did the Federal Reserve cut interest rates during the year? The FED Ticketing Committee revealed: Tonight's data is a top priority

On Tuesday EST, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank Governor Raphael Bostic (Raphael Bostic) once again reiterated his view that interest rates are expected to be cut once in 2024 during an interview. But at the same time, he did not rule out the possibility of cutting interest rates twice or not. He said that the specific prospects for interest rate cuts will depend on the direction of the US economy and inflation — and the upcoming release of March CPI data at 20:30 tonight is a top priority. Bostic said that if the final published data met this expectation, it would be a “welcome development.”

• Former Federal Reserve's “Eagle King” sings the opposite: cutting interest rates three times this year is the benchmark situation

At a time when the market is shifting to betting on not cutting or even raising interest rates, Brad, a former major hawk and former senior Federal Reserve official, gave off a clear dovish signal. On Tuesday local time, former St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman James Bullard said in an interview with the media that cutting interest rates three times this year is the benchmark situation. The reason is that the inflation rate is moving closer to the Fed's target, yet the economy remains flexible. Brad said, “Currently, it should be understood according to the Committee and Chairman's literal meaning. Their current benchmark forecast is still to cut interest rates three times during the year. This is the basic situation.”

• “Smart money” continues to short the stock market

Hedge funds considered “smart money” are selling global stocks at the fastest rate in three months, increasing their bearish bets on the stock market. According to Goldman Sachs data, professionals sold global stocks for the second straight week last week, which was almost entirely driven by short selling. This is also the biggest sell-off for hedge funds since mid-January. Goldman Sachs pointed out that non-essential consumer goods stocks were among the worst performing and most sell-off sectors last week. Every day, hedge fund managers are reducing their long positions in the industry and shorting retail-focused ETFs.

• Is it expected that the Fed will cut interest rates later? The two giants, Goldman Sachs and American Express, took the lead in “cutting interest rates”

On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs's consumer bank Marcus lowered interest rates on its high-yield savings accounts for the first time in more than three years, lowering the annual interest rate for the bank's flagship product to 4.4%, down from 4.5% in March. Another financial giant, American Express, cut interest rates on its high-yield savings accounts from 4.35% to 4.30%. The analysis points out that this will only happen when Goldman Sachs knows that other peers will follow in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve and cut interest rates. This step usually occurs when they are convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates or follow the Fed's decision.

• The report said that the Bank of Japan is considering raising inflation expectations due to the strong momentum of “Chundo” salary increases

On Tuesday, the media quoted people familiar with the matter as reporting that due to the unexpectedly strong results of the annual salary negotiations, the Bank of Japan may consider raising the inflation forecast at a policy meeting later this month. People familiar with the matter said that the Bank of Japan is considering raising the inflation rate forecast for this fiscal year, excluding fresh food, from the current 2.4%, and raising the core inflation target forecast excluding energy to 2% or higher. The central bank believes that rising labor costs brought about by rising wages are one of the factors driving future price increases.

Resumption of US stock trading

• The three major US stock indices closed with mixed ups and downs, and Xiaopeng Motor rose more than 9%

Overnight, the Dow fell slightly by 0.02%, the NASDAQ rose 0.32%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.15%.

Star technology stocks had mixed ups and downs. Tesla rose more than 2%, Google rose more than 1%, and Nvidia fell more than 2%.

The solar energy, non-ferrous metals and mining sectors registered the highest gains. Gold mining rose more than 21%, Sunrun rose more than 9%, and Southern Copper and Chilean mining and chemical industries rose more than 3%.

Popular Chinese securities generally rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 1.68%. Xiaopeng Motors rose more than 9%, Bilibili and NIO rose more than 7%, and iQiyi, Weibo, and NetEase rose more than 3%.

• Intel to launch new artificial intelligence chip, company says performance surpasses Nvidia H100

$Intel (INTC.US)$A new version of the artificial intelligence chip will be launched to challenge Nvidia's dominance in this field. Intel said at a company event early Tuesday that the upgraded processor, called Gaudi 3, will be fully launched in the third quarter. The chip aims to improve performance in two key areas. One is to help train artificial intelligence systems, and the other is to run the finished software. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said that earlier versions of Gaudi failed to achieve the increase in market share that Intel had always hoped for. He anticipates that the new version will have a greater impact. According to Intel's assessment, Gaudi 3 will be faster and more energy efficient than Nvidia's H100.

• Microsoft to invest $2.9 billion in Japan to develop AI and cloud computing

Tuesday (April 9th), local time$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$It was announced that it will invest $2.9 billion over the next two years to enhance its cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in Japan, which is the company's largest investment in Japan. Microsoft will expand its digital training program to provide more than 3 million people with AI skills over the next three years. The company also plans to open a laboratory in Japan focusing on AI and robotics while deepening cybersecurity cooperation with the Japanese government.

• Goldman Sachs lowered Tesla's target price for the third time this year

Goldman Sachs lowered for the third time in the year$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Target price. Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney said he would maintain Tesla's neutral rating and lower the target share price from $190 to $175. Delaney said that in the medium term, the new Model Y may be a positive driver. Future car pricing and gross margin are still key factors affecting Tesla's stock price. The analyst also said that FSD's ability to bring lasting profits is still a key question mark; furthermore, if the launch of Tesla's $25,000 model is delayed, this will have a significant negative impact on Tesla stock.

• Focusing on enterprise AI applications, Google Cloud Computing Conference released new products such as Google Vids and Gemini Code Assistant

$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$On Tuesday, the annual cloud computing conference was held in Las Vegas, USA, and a series of artificial intelligence product updates for cloud computing enterprise customers were released, covering everything from Gemini to AI development, operation and maintenance, and security. Google Vids can be used in collaboration with Workspace, and Gemini Code Assistant will directly compete with GitHub's Copilot Enterprise Edition. Other new products include the Vertex AI proxy generator, a tool to introduce AI into the database, Workspace, the AI image generator Imagen 2, and an enterprise Chrome update. The latest generative AI tool Gemini 1.5 Pro can also be previewed on the Vertex AI platform.

• Boeing engineers report safety issues with 787 Dreamliner

According to media reports, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is investigating$Boeing (BA.US)$An engineer's report on the safety of the 787 Dreamliner. The whistleblower claims that the various parts of the 787 fuselage are not properly fastened together, and over time, this issue may reduce the aircraft's performance. Furthermore, aircraft maintenance and testing were carried out in the wrong way. Boeing responded that claims about the structural integrity of the 787 were inaccurate.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• Hokusui added millet to close to HK$400 million

On April 9 (Tuesday), Southbound made a net purchase of HK$2,733 billion in Hong Kong stocks.

$CHINFMINING (01258.HK)$,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)$Received net purchases of HK$427 million, HK$395 million and HK$259 million respectively;

$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$,$CNOOC (00883.HK)$,$CHINAHONGQIAO (01378.HK)$Net sales were HK$190 million, HK$145 million and HK$92.26 million respectively.

• Passenger Federation: The auto market started slowly in March, and the Beijing Auto Show will be a weather vane for judging subsequent market conditions.

On April 9, the Passenger Transport Federation released the March passenger car market analysis report. The report points out that in March, China's auto market achieved year-on-year and month-on-month growth, spurred by post-holiday consumption recovery brought about by Spring Festival factors. From March 1 to 31, the passenger car market retailed 1.687 million units, up 6.0% year on year and 52.8% month on month; from January to March, the total retail sales volume was 4.829 million units, up 13.1% year on year. Meanwhile, the Beijing Auto Show will open on April 25. The Passenger Federation believes that order performance at the auto show will be an important weather vane for judging whether the market is warm or cold.

Today's attention

Keywords: US CPI, wholesale sales monthly rate, API/EIA crude oil inventory; Delta Air Lines financial report

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce the March CPI, the monthly wholesale sales rate for February, and API/EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending April 5.

The market generally believes that the year-on-year increase in CPI in March rebounded to 3.5% from 3.2% last month, and the month-on-month growth rate slowed slightly from 0.4% to 0.3%; the core CPI growth rate slowed from 3.8% to 3.7% year-on-year.

Analysts pointed out that CPI energy continued to rise year on year in March. The price of Brent crude oil futures reached a high level of 90 US dollars/barrel for the first time since October last year, and surged 18% since this year. In addition, prices of other raw materials such as copper, aluminum, and cocoa have also risen sharply. The rise in housing-related items, insurance costs, and investment management expenses will also lead to a rebound in super-core inflation data, so it is probably unlikely that they want to see inflation fall to the Fed's target level in the short term. The prospects for the Fed's interest rate cut in June will still be highly uncertain.

In terms of financial events, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo delivered a speech; Federal Reserve Governor Bauman delivered a speech on Basel's capital requirements.

In terms of financial reports,$Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$Earnings will be announced before the market today.

Futubull Chen read:

When buying really good growth stocks, in addition to considering the price, don't forget the timing factor.

—Philip Fisher

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