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Big news! Buffett, make a surprise move!

券商中國 · Apr 9 22:30

来源：券商中国
作者：周乐

最新消息称，巴菲特旗下$伯克希尔-A (BRK.A.US)$/$伯克希尔-B (BRK.B.US)$已正式申请发行日元优先票据。巴菲特的这一最新举动，瞬间引发市场猜测，其可能会进一步增加在日本股市的投资。

当前市场关注的焦点是，巴菲特将会增持哪些标的？有投资者认为，如果巴菲特进一步投资日本股市，买入的标的大概率仍是日本“五大商社”。从基本面来看，日本“五大商社”业绩仍在持续走强，且分红、回购力度也在加大，这显然符合巴菲特一贯的投资风格。

值得注意的是，正当巴菲特突然出手之际，外资却在持续抛售日本股票。据$日本交易所 (8697.JP)$集团披露的最新数据，外国投资者在截至3月29日的一周内，净卖出了1.18万亿日元（约合人民币562亿元）的日本股票现货和期货，创出了2023年9月最后一周以来的最高水平。

巴菲特突然出手

当地时间4月9日，彭博社报道，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司已正式申请发行日元优先票据。

巴菲特的这一最新举动，瞬间引发市场猜测，其可能会进一步增加在日本股市的投资。

受此影响，巴菲特持有的日本“五大商社”（$伊藤忠商事 (8001.JP)$、$丸红 (8002.JP)$、$三菱商事 (8058.JP)$、$三井物产 (8031.JP)$和$住友商事 (8053.JP)$）股价今日盘中集体拉升，其中三菱商事、三井物产双双大涨超3%，住友商事、丸红、伊藤忠商事分别上涨2.8%、2.2%、1.4%。

巴菲特的最新举动，也直接带动日本股市走强。截至4月9日收盘，日经225指数涨超1%，报39773.13点，已连续2个交易日录得上涨。

回顾此前，伯克希尔公司于2023年11月发售了约8亿美元的日元债券，随后该公司便出手增持了日本股票。今年2月的致投资者信函中，伯克希尔公司表示，其目前大部分日本投资都是通过日元债券来提供资金的。

目前，伯克希尔公司已经成为日元债券最大的海外发行商之一，在其过去40次债券发行中32次选择了日元。野村高级信贷分析师Kazuma Ogino称，伯克希尔公司过去发行过大量日元债券，总规模超过1000亿日元，这表明了日本市场的吸引力。

据日媒透露，伯克希尔公司的日元债券发行预计将在未来几天内进行，但目前尚不知道具体金额，也不清楚伯克希尔公司将如何配置所募得的资金。

值得注意的是，伯克希尔公司将成为日本央行取消负利率政策后，第一家在日本市场发行日元债券的大型非金融海外债券发行人。

日本央行在3月宣布最新利率决议，将基准利率从-0.1%上调至0—0.1%，为2007年以来首次加息，长达8年的负利率时代宣告终结。

媒体分析指出，有迹象表明，日本央行行长植田和男不会急于再次加息，在这种背景下，日元债券的信用利差(即相对于无风险基准的额外收益率)已经收窄至2022年9月以来的最低水平。投资者现在对企业债券要求的信用利差约为52个基点，低于一年前的67个基点。

巴菲特盯上了谁？

当前市场关注的焦点是，巴菲特在募资完成后，将会在日本股市中增持哪些标的？

有投资者认为，如果巴菲特进一步加码投资日本股市，买入的标的大概率仍是日本“五大商社”。从基本面来看，日本“五大商社”业绩仍在持续走强，且分红、回购力度也在加大，这显然符合巴菲特一贯的投资风格。

以伊藤忠商事为例，其宣布，截至明年3月的财年总派息率将提高至50%。自今年4月起的新财年，公司的综合净利润目标为8800亿日元，较上一财年8000亿日元的目标增长10%。

另外，丸红也将年度股息预测从78日元/股上调至83日元/股；今年2月，三菱商事也宣布，将回购至多5000亿日元的股票，此前该公司已于2023年底前完成了约3000亿日元的回购。

巴菲特在股东信中称，多元化业务、高股息、高自由现金流、审慎增发新股是其青睐“五大商社”的重要原因。

回顾巴菲特买入日本“五大商社”的动作，也不难看出，其对这5只日本股票的中意程度。

2020年8月，伯克希尔公司首次宣布，被动持有日本“五大商社”5%的股份；

2023年6月，伯克希尔公司宣布，已将其持股比例增至8.5%以上；

今年2月，在发布的股东信中，巴菲特透露，伯克希尔公司已经持有上述5家公司约9%的股份。

关于将持有多久，巴菲特在股东信中表示，将继续长期持有“五大商社”股份，他透露，伯克希尔公司计划持有这些投资10到20年。

站在当前时点来看，大举买入日本“五大商社”无疑是巴菲特近年来最成功的投资之一。

自2020年伯克希尔公司收购这五只股票以来，平均涨幅已超过一倍。日本股市一路高歌猛进，基准指数日经225指数超越1989年的历史前值38957.44点，创出历史新高。

目前，伯克希尔公司对这5家日本公司的投资成本共计1.6万亿日元，随着近年来日元汇率走低，伯克希尔公司于2023年年终未实现美元收益率已达61%，未实现美元收益金额达80亿美元（约合人民币580亿元）。

日本股票，外资卖卖卖

值得注意的是，正当巴菲特突然出手之际，外资却在持续抛售日本股票。

根据日本交易所集团披露的最新数据显示，外国投资者在截至3月29日的一周内，净卖出了1.18万亿日元（约合人民币562亿元）的日本股票现货和期货。数据显示，这创出了2023年9月最后一周以来的最高水平。

现货方面，海外投资者卖出2130亿日元股票，创去年12月以来新高。与此同时，日本散户投资者在截至3月29日的一周内购入4440亿日元，前一周为净卖出。

分析人士指出，外国投资者抛售的主要原因是，从日本市场领先全球的涨势中获利了结，且部分基金在做季度末仓位调整。

海外机构减持日本股市的另一个原因是，日股在大幅上涨后相对于新兴市场吸引力的下降。同时，日本央行计划的ETF基金减持对投资者而言也是潜在的风险点。

因此，巴菲特的突然动手，也令市场颇感意外，其是否嗅到了新的市场机会？

编辑/jayden

Source: Broker China
Author: Zhou Le

According to the latest news, Buffett's$Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$/$Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$An official application has been made to issue Japanese yen senior notes. Buffett's latest move instantly sparked market speculation, and it may further increase investment in the Japanese stock market.

The current focus of the market is on which targets will Buffett increase his holdings? Some investors believe that if Buffett invests further in the Japanese stock market, there is a high probability that the target of the purchase will still be Japan's “Big Five Trading Companies.” From a fundamental perspective, the performance of Japan's “Big Five Trading Companies” continues to strengthen, and dividends and repurchases are also increasing. This is clearly in line with Buffett's consistent investment style.

It is worth noting that at a time when Buffett suddenly took action, foreign investors continued to sell Japanese stocks. According to$Japan Exchange Group (8697.JP)$According to the latest data disclosed by the Group, foreign investors had a net sale of 1.18 trillion yen (approximately RMB 56.2 billion) of Japanese stock spots and futures in the week ending March 29, the highest level since the last week of September 2023.

Buffett made a sudden move

On April 9, local time, Bloomberg reported that Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has officially applied to issue Japanese yen senior notes.

Buffett's latest move instantly sparked market speculation, and it may further increase investment in the Japanese stock market.

Affected by this, Buffett owns Japan's “Big Five Trading Companies” ($ITOCHU (8001.JP)$,$Marubeni (8002.JP)$,$Mitsubishi (8058.JP)$,$Mitsui (8031.JP)$und$Sumitomo (8053.JP)$) Stock prices rose collectively today. Among them, Mitsubishi Corporation and Mitsui & Co., Ltd. both surged more than 3%, while Sumitomo Corporation, Marubeni, and ITOCHU Corporation rose 2.8%, 2.2%, and 1.4%, respectively.

Buffett's latest move has also directly strengthened the Japanese stock market. By the close of April 9, the Nikkei 225 Index had risen more than 1% to 39773.13 points. It had been rising for 2 consecutive trading days.

Looking back, Berkshire sold about 800 million US dollars of yen bonds in November 2023, after which the company increased its holdings in Japanese stocks. In a letter to investors in February of this year, Berkshire said that most of its current investments in Japan are funded through Japanese yen bonds.

Currently, Berkshire has become one of the largest overseas issuers of Japanese yen bonds, choosing yen 32 times out of 40 bond issues in the past. Kazuma Ogino, senior credit analyst at Nomura, said that Berkshire has issued a large number of yen bonds in the past, with a total scale of over 100 billion yen, which shows the appeal of the Japanese market.

According to Japanese media, Berkshire's issuance of Japanese yen bonds is expected to take place within the next few days, but the exact amount is unknown, and it is unclear how Berkshire will allocate the funds raised.

Notably, Berkshire will be the first large-scale non-financial overseas bond issuer to issue yen bonds in the Japanese market after the Bank of Japan abolishes the negative interest rate policy.

The Bank of Japan announced its latest interest rate decision in March, raising the benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to 0-0.1%, the first rate hike since 2007, ending the 8-year negative interest rate era.

According to media analysis, there are signs that Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will not rush to raise interest rates again. Against this background, the credit spread on yen bonds (that is, additional yield compared to the risk-free benchmark) has narrowed to the lowest level since September 2022. Investors now require a credit spread of about 52 basis points for corporate bonds, down from 67 basis points a year ago.

Who is Buffett eyeing?

The current focus of the market is on which targets will Buffett increase his holdings in the Japanese stock market after the capital raising is completed?

Some investors believe that if Buffett further invests in the Japanese stock market, there is a high probability that the target of the purchase will still be Japan's “Big Five Trading Companies.” From a fundamental perspective, the performance of Japan's “Big Five Trading Companies” continues to strengthen, and dividends and repurchases are also increasing. This is clearly in line with Buffett's consistent investment style.

Take ITOCHU Corporation as an example. It announced that the total dividend payout ratio for the fiscal year ending March next year will increase to 50%. For the new fiscal year starting in April this year, the company's comprehensive net profit target is 880 billion yen, an increase of 10% over the previous fiscal year's target of 800 billion yen.

In addition, Marubeni also raised its annual dividend forecast from 78 yen/share to 83 yen/share; in February of this year, Mitsubishi Corporation also announced that it would repurchase up to 500 billion yen of shares. Previously, the company had completed a repurchase of about 300 billion yen by the end of 2023.

Buffett said in a shareholder letter that diversified business, high dividends, high free cash flow, and prudent issuance of new shares are important reasons why it favors the “Big Five Trading Companies.”

Looking back at Buffett's move to buy Japan's “Big Five Trading Companies,” it's not hard to see how much he is interested in these five Japanese stocks.

In August 2020, Berkshire announced for the first time that it would passively hold 5% of Japan's “Big Five Trading Companies”;

In June 2023, Berkshire announced that it had increased its shareholding ratio to more than 8.5%;

In February of this year, in a shareholder letter issued, Buffett revealed that Berkshire already holds about 9% of the shares in the five companies mentioned above.

Regarding how long he will hold it, Buffett stated in a shareholder letter that he will continue to hold shares in the “Big Five Trading Companies” for a long time. He revealed that Berkshire plans to hold these investments for 10 to 20 years.

Judging from the current point of view, the massive purchase of Japan's “Big Five Trading Companies” is undoubtedly one of Buffett's most successful investments in recent years.

Since Berkshire bought these five stocks in 2020, the average increase has more than doubled. The Japanese stock market made great strides, and the benchmark index Nikkei 225 surpassed the previous historical value of 38957.44 points in 1989, reaching a record high.

Currently, Berkshire's investment costs in these five Japanese companies total 1.6 trillion yen. As the yen exchange rate declined in recent years, Berkshire's unrealized dollar yield reached 61% at the end of 2023, and the amount of unrealized dollar revenue reached 8 billion US dollars (approximately RMB 58 billion).

Japanese stocks, foreign sales and sales

It is worth noting that while Buffett suddenly took action, foreign investors continued to sell Japanese stocks.

According to the latest data disclosed by the Japan Exchange Group, foreign investors net sold 1.18 trillion yen (approximately RMB 56.2 billion) of Japanese stock spot and futures in the week ending March 29. According to the data, this was the highest level since the last week of September 2023.

On the spot side, overseas investors sold 213 billion yen of shares, a record high since December last year. Meanwhile, Japanese retail investors purchased 444 billion yen in the week ending March 29, which was a net sale the previous week.

Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the sell-off by foreign investors was to profit from the leading global rise in the Japanese market, and some funds were making position adjustments at the end of the quarter.

Another reason why overseas institutions reduced their holdings in the Japanese stock market was the decline in attractiveness of Japanese stocks compared to emerging markets after a sharp rise. At the same time, the Bank of Japan's planned ETF fund holdings reduction is also a potential risk point for investors.

As a result, Buffett's sudden move also surprised the market. Did he smell new market opportunities?

Editor/jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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