Brief review:
The lightweight basic package was launched on 3Q23, and the contract debt of 796 million yuan remained flat from month to month. ① Judging from operating data: In 2023, the total number of registered enterprise users was 1.294 million (+14.5%), and the number of paying companies during the year was 72,000 (+1.9%). After the launch of lightweight products, the number of paying enterprise users reversed the year-on-year decline in the first half of 2023 and achieved effective customer acquisition. ② Judging from the contract debt index, the contract debt at the end of 2023 was 796 million yuan (-4%), which was flat from month to month. We believe that the company adjusts products in a timely manner based on the macro environment, and that lightweight packages help capture diverse customer needs.
Multi-Hunting RCN strengthens partnership with headhunters. The company launched the Multi-Hunting Headhunting Cooperation Network Platform (Multi-Hunting RCN) in September 2023. By the end of '23, Multi-Hunting RCN products had covered more than 1,500 headhunters, of which 70% of hunting companies had participated in order delivery. We believe that the company's heavy hunting of RCN products can effectively help hunters smoothly cross the industry cycle and deepen the barriers to recruitment in the middle and high-end photo market.
In 2023, a total of HK$110 million was repurchased to enhance shareholder returns. In 2023, the company repurchased a total of 11.357 million shares at a total cost of HK$110 million to enhance shareholder returns.
Looking at barriers, we think that online recruitment is a “matching” business rather than a simple “traffic” business. In the early days, the company strongly promoted the stickiness of B-side users. It had a strong mentality on the KA side. It was a “small but beautiful” business, and the barriers were stable. The company is expected to reach an inflection point in performance as the middle and high-end recruitment market recovers.
1. 4Q23 revenue of $630 million (+0.9%), adjusted net profit of $0.14 million Performance: 4Q23 revenue of $630 million (+0.9%), of which revenue from enterprises/individuals was $548/82 million, respectively, -2.8%/+35%. ② The adjusted OP was RMB 0.26 million (4Q22 was -165 million yuan), and the adjusted amount was RMB 0.14 million (-160 million yuan in 4Q22).
Operating data: In 2023, the total number of registered enterprise users was 1.294 million (+14.5%), and the number of paying companies during the year was 72,000 (+1.9%). There are 904.5 million registered talents, including 103,000 (+8.5%) of individual users who pay for online vocational qualification training each year.
2. 4Q23 cost optimization, contract debt of 796 million yuan, flat month-on-month expenses: 4Q23 sales/management/R&D expenses were 2.779/1.38/ 102 million yuan, respectively, -39%/+32%/-14% year over year, and cost rates were -28.6/+5.2/-2.8pct year over year.
Cash and contract liabilities: As of the end of the 4Q23 period, the company had bank terms/cash and equivalents of $1,489/667 million each; contract liabilities were $796 million (flat month-on-month, -4% year over year).
Updated profit forecast and valuation: We expect 2024-2026 revenue of 24.26/2.9 billion yuan each, up 6.5%/8.8%/9.6% year-on-year; adjusted net profit of 175/2.45/305 million yuan, respectively. Considering the company's high barriers, based on comparable company valuations, the 2024 12-15xPE is given, corresponding to a reasonable market value range of $21-26 billion (HK$23-2.9 billion, HKD/RMB=1.103, same exchange rate) and a reasonable value range of $4.0-5.0 (HK$4.4-5.5), giving it a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: Product development falls short of expectations, policy and regulation risks, market competition, macroeconomic fluctuations.