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珠江啤酒(002461):产品升级延续 成本改善将启

Pearl River Brewery (002461): Product upgrades will continue to improve costs

長江證券 ·  Apr 9

Description of the event

Pearl River Brewery achieved total operating revenue of 5.378 billion yuan (+9.13%), net profit to mother of 624 million yuan (+4.22%), after deducting non-net profit of 557 million yuan (+4.63%) in 2023. Looking at 2023Q4 alone, the company achieved total revenue of 827 million yuan (+1.16%), net profit to mother of 19933,700 yuan, and deducted non-net profit of 467.814 million yuan.

Incident comments

Benefiting from cost-effective consumption trends, the company's sales volume grew steadily. In 2023, the company achieved sales of 1.4028 million tons of beer, up 4.79% year on year, with an average price of 3670.4 yuan/ton, up 3.76% year on year. Among them, Q4 sales volume was 250,000 tons, up about 3% year on year, and average revenue per ton decreased by about 1.8%. Looking at 2023 revenue by product: high-end 3.426 billion yuan (+15.12%), mid-range 1,399 million yuan (-3.59%), mass market 324 million yuan (+5.32%). Looking at 2023 revenue by channel: 4.863 billion yuan (+7.92%), supermarket 135 million yuan (+38.51%), nighttime market 92 million yuan (+13.32%), e-commerce 59 million yuan (+17.74%). The increase in the tonnage price of products is mainly due to the company's focus on product upgrades. Sales of high-end beer products increased 15.96% year over year, increasing the promotion of 97 Chunsheng on the restaurant side.

Rising raw material costs are dragging down beer's gross profit margin, while rising off-season expenses are dragging down Q4 profit margins. The company's net profit margin fell 0.55pct to 11.59% in 2023, with gross margin +0.38pct to 42.82% (beer business gross margin +0.04pct to 41.29%, with raw material costs increasing by 1.29pct), period expense ratio +1.41pct to 22.05%, detailed changes: sales (+0.23pct), management (+0.53pct), R&D (-0.56pct), finance (+1.21pct). Looking at 2023Q4 alone, net profit margin fell 5.81 pct to -2.41%, of which gross margin was -7.44pct to 27.7%, and the period expense ratio was +3.45pct to 32.8%. Detailed changes: sales (+1.51pct), management (+1.43pct), R&D (-0.95pct), and finance (+1.46pct). On a full-year perspective, the increase in the gross margin of the beer business is slowing down due to the increase in raw material costs. It is expected that in 2024, the closing costs of Australia and McDonald's will improve; in addition, with the increase in investment related to the Padai Cultural and Creative Park, financial interest income will also decrease; demand for Q4 will cool down after the Spring Festival, and the decline in revenue per ton will drag down gross margin and cause Q4 profit losses.

The company insists on structural upgrading, and cost improvements are expected to drive profit improvements. The company actively optimizes the product structure, accelerates product structure upgrades around the “3+N” brand strategy, and launches products such as Nanyue Huzun, 980mL canned Pearl River Puree, and New English IPA. 97. Chunsheng positions itself as a catering channel and insists on consumer cultivation. Currently, the release of product potential energy has maintained a relatively rapid growth rate. As an innovative channel provider, the company launched a new model of Pearl River Puree Experience Store to attract investors from all over the country, which is expected to bring new growth points to the company. Looking ahead to 2024, the steady growth trend of the mid-range industry will not change. The recovery of Australian wheat will help beer companies improve on the cost side, and the company's profitability is expected to increase. The company's EPS is expected to be 0.34/0.39 yuan in 2024/2025, corresponding to PE valuation of 24X/20X, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning

1. The risk of slow recovery in demand;

2. Industry competition further exacerbates risks;

3. Risk of changes in consumer consumption habits, etc.;

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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