I feel that before the Spring Festival is over, the friends of Hong Kong stocks will start to work hard again.

During the Spring Festival holiday, markets in Europe and the United States are only open for one day because it coincides with the weekend, and US stocks are still closed because Monday, February 19, coincides with the anniversary of the President of Washington.

Then let's talk about last week's US stocks. After the biggest weekly decline in the past year, US stocks posted their biggest weekly gain in the past year last week. Last week, the Nasdaq rose 5.31%, the s & p 500 rose 4.3%, and the Dow Jones industrial average rose 4.25%.

This global "small stock market crash" is caused by US stocks. If you look at the trend of the index, this "small stock market crash" may have passed. If the risk of US stocks is eliminated, then stock markets in regions such as Hong Kong stocks can have the opportunity to repair. For example, the rest of Asia's stock markets, which opened yesterday (19th), performed very well. The Nikkei 225 opened high and rose 1.94%, while South Korea's composite index rose 0.87%. Although Singapore's FTSE index has not yet closed, there is no pressure to rise by more than one point. European stock markets, which just opened, were also dominated by gains, with Germany's DAX index up 0.31%, Britain's FTSE 100 index down 0.1%, France's CAC40 index up 0.11%, and even affected oil rose. So as long as there is nothing wrong with the US stock market, there will be no problem with the rest of the stock market, especially for undervalued Hong Kong stocks.

But I thinkHowever, the thinking left to us by this "small stock market crash" still has to continue, and it is even said that this "small stock market crash" may be an exercise for a big stock market crash in the future, and we have to deal with it eventually.

The root cause of the stock market crashWith the rising expectations of interest rate hikes in the United States, the problem of high valuations caused by low interest rates in the past has gradually become prominent. The valuation of US stocks seems to be a less dangerous ticking time bomb, because everyone knows that raising interest rates represents economic improvement. Everyone also thinks that in the context of economic growth towards good corporate performance, valuation can take time to solve.

But this may really be the wishful thinking of investors, once the economy stagnates a little, then killing valuations can also pose a lot of risk to the stock market.

For investors, this small-stock crash may be more like a risk tip or rehearsal:Whether your position has exposed too much risk, whether the selection of individual stock portfolio at this stage is reasonable, and whether there are sufficient backers or filings to reduce the withdrawal of net worth under similar circumstances in the future.At the same time, this sudden exercise also puts forward higher requirements for investors' confidence in their choice of individual stocks. Which stocks you are not afraid of falling at all, the more you fall, the more you buy, and which stocks you panic when they fall. You hesitate to sell every day, and you have no idea where their margin of safety is.

So,This "small stock market crash" came just right.Because as the valuations of Hong Kong stocks gradually become reasonable, individual sectors and even valuations are already historically high, coupled with people's increasing enthusiasm for investing in Hong Kong stocks, I think Hong Kong stocks will stage a final madness sooner or later. this madness may be this year, or in the next few years. And the last straw may be the future US stocks, Hong Kong stocks themselves, or even the Chinese economy itself. What we need to do is to stay awake at all times, think about how to deal with the decline every day, make enough plans and leave enough positions to save our lives.

During the Spring Festival, I think it is necessary to pay attention to the following pieces of news and data:

1) during the week, the market will be nervous to accept a number of "tugs" from the Fed: at least 11 Fed officials may make public speeches, comments on inflation will be the focus of the market, and the minutes of the January FOMC meeting and the 2018 monetary policy report will be released.

After the sharp fall, the market may have some expectations for a higher-than-expected rate rise, so after the official statement comes out, it may be able to stabilize the market and manage market expectations.

2) the number of people transported during the Spring Festival decreased for the first time. According to the Ministry of Communications, 15 days before the Spring Festival, a total of 1.112 billion passengers were sent by railways, roads, waterways and civil aviation across the country, down 3.11 percent from last year.

This may reflect the improvement of the process of urbanization, more and more people choose to spend the Spring Festival in cities, and children who grew up in cities no longer have the concept of hometown in the countryside.

3) according to the comprehensive calculation of the data center of the National Tourism Administration, in the four days before the Spring Festival, the total number of tourists received across the country totaled 287 million, an increase of 11.1 percent over the same period last year, and tourism revenue totaled 352.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6 percent over the same period last year.

-- at least it shows that the tourism market is a double-digit growth market, which more or less represents the market growth rate of rising consumption.

4) according to the latest news, Jinri Toutiao has completed the acquisition of super cute Faceu. It is reported that the transaction price reached 300 million US dollars, or about 1.9 billion yuan.

Another giant has emerged after BAT, Jinri Toutiao. Jinri Toutiao can grant many other products by relying on the strong traffic of its own platform. Recently, Douyin, which is the most popular, is also Toutiao, and Toutiao can be said to have no control over the operation of content.

5) as Treasury yields rose to high levels last week, the US bond market will see a huge supply of bonds totaling $258 billion in the new week. The U.S. Treasury will auction $151 billion in short-term bills starting on Tuesday after a rest day on President's Day, according to Reuters. Of this total, the three-month and six-month notes are worth $51 billion and $45 billion, respectively, the largest ever.

-- it's all because of high yields on US debt.

6) according to the statistics of Cat's Eye movies, the box office of the first day of the Spring Festival on Lunar New year's Day totaled 1.318 billion yuan. Among them, Monster Hunt 2 earned more than 555 million yuan on its first day, breaking the one-day box office record of 487 million Chinese film history held before Fast and Furious 8, and the one-day box office record of 426 million Chinese-language films in Wolf Warriors 2.

-- or the upgrading of consumption, and the increase in demand for entertainment is also the main theme of future investment.