For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term SATS Ltd. (SGX:S58) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 52% over a half decade. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 10% in the last three months.
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
We don't think that SATS' modest trailing twelve month profit has the market's full attention at the moment. We think revenue is probably a better guide. Generally speaking, we'd consider a stock like this alongside loss-making companies, simply because the quantum of the profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue.
Over five years, SATS grew its revenue at 11% per year. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. The share price return isn't so respectable with an annual loss of 9% over the period. It seems probably that the business has failed to live up to initial expectations. A pessimistic market can create opportunities.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It is of course excellent to see how SATS has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at SATS' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We've already covered SATS' share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. SATS' TSR of was a loss of 47% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that SATS shareholders are down 8.6% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 0.8%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 8% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - SATS has 2 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Singaporean exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.