The installed scale of distributed photovoltaics increased, and revenue and net profit to mother grew steadily. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 686 million yuan (+5.59%), net profit attributable to mother of 220 million yuan (+14.99%), and net profit of non-return to mother of 213 million yuan (+13.79%). Among them, quarterly revenue for the fourth quarter was 143 million yuan (+8.61%), and net profit to mother was 34 million yuan (+12.09%). The reason for the increase in the company's revenue and net profit in 2023 is that as the scale of self-owned power plants continues to expand, photovoltaic power generation revenue and gross profit increased simultaneously with the increase in power generation. As of 2023, the company's cumulative grid-connected capacity of its own distributed photovoltaic power plants was 828 MW, an increase of 14.05% over the previous year. In 2023, the company's self-owned power plants generated 809 million kilowatt-hours (+19.85%), achieving photovoltaic power generation revenue of 596 million yuan (+13.01%).
Continue to promote the development of distributed photovoltaic projects to ensure the steady growth of the company's performance. In 2024, in accordance with the business development strategy of “focusing on distributed power plant business, keeping up with product technology development, and expanding new distributed application areas around the main business”, the company will accelerate the pace of construction and grid connection of distributed photovoltaic power plant projects, promote steady expansion to economically developed regions with high electricity consumption and high electricity purchases across the country, actively develop and reserve high-quality roof resources, and achieve a continuous increase in installed capacity. As of 2023, the company has about 163 MW of self-owned distributed photovoltaic power plants under construction, to be built, and to be contracted. In the future, the company's distributed photovoltaic projects will be put into operation one after another, driving the company's performance growth.
Industrial and commercial energy storage operations are progressing steadily, the development and manufacture of household energy storage products is being accelerated, and the value of distributed resources is being further exploited. The company will focus on expanding distributed customer resources, lay out the charging pile business, and build a two-wheel drive energy storage business development pattern of “industrial and commercial energy storage operation+household energy storage product development and manufacturing”; most of the company's more than 1,000 industrial and commercial customers are large industrial electricity customers with high energy consumption, with a total annual electricity consumption of nearly 10 billion kilowatt-hours, involving more than 13 million square meters of industrial and commercial energy storage, charging piles, and storage products. In the future, the company will focus on industrial and commercial customers to provide an integrated service of “power generation+charging+electricity storage” to further explore the value of industrial and commercial resources.
Risk warning: Electricity consumption is falling; electricity prices are falling; distributed photovoltaic projects are falling short of expectations.
Investment advice: As the installed scale of distributed photovoltaics grew less than expected, the profit forecast was lowered. Net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 2.7 3/3.37 billion yuan (the original forecast value for 2024/2025 was 3.2 billion yuan, respectively), with year-on-year growth rates of 23.9%/23.6%/15.7%, EPS 0.55/0.78, respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 17.5/114.1/12.2, respectively. The company was given 20-21 times PE in 2024, corresponding to a target market value of 55-5.7 billion yuan, corresponding to a reasonable value of 10.91-11.46 yuan/share. There is a 15% to 20% premium space compared to the current stock price, maintaining a “buy” rating.