The company released its 2023 annual report
In 2023, Tianqi Lithium achieved revenue of 40.503 billion yuan, an increase of 0.13% over the previous year. Net profit attributable to mother for the full year of 2023 was 7.297 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.75%; net profit not attributable to mother was 7.177 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.88%. Among them, Q4 revenue in 2023 was 7.104 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.04% and a decrease of 17.16%; net profit to mother was 801 million yuan, which turned into a loss year-on-month; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 806 million yuan, an average year-on-month loss.
Lithium salt lithium mine production is growing steadily. Does the drop in lithium prices affect performance? Lithium salt: 1) Production and sales: Lithium salt production was 50,700 tons, +7.30% year over year; lithium salt sales volume was 56,700 tons, -2.48% year over year. 2) Price & cost: According to estimates, the average price of the company's lithium salt products without tax was 234,600 yuan/ton, -45.51% year-on-year; the sales cost of lithium salt was 61,400 yuan/ton, +0.70% year-on-year.
? Lithium mine: 1) Production and sales: Production of lithium concentrate was 1,522,300 tons, +12.88% year over year; sales volume 844,700 tons, +11.30% year over year. 2) Price & cost: According to estimates, the average price of the company's lithium ore products without tax was 32,200 yuan/ton, +58.31% year-on-year; lithium ore sales cost was 3,078 yuan/ton, -5.70% year-on-year.
Looking at the 23Q4 quarter,
? Operating conditions: 1) Production and sales: According to IGO, the Q4 lithium concentrate production was 358,000 tons, the sales volume was 275,000 tons, and the corresponding company's equity sales volume was 71,500 tons; 2) Mineral price: The average price of Q4 lithium ore was 3016 US dollars/ton, down 19.4% from the previous month.
? Investment income: Q4 Company's investment income was RMB 190 million, and the company has received SQM dividends equivalent to about RMB 2,276 billion throughout the year.
? According to IGO, Q4 Quinana produced 617 tons of lithium hydroxide (of which 286 tons were battery grade), unconfirmed sales, and inventory at the end of the quarter was 3076 tons.
? Impairment: The company accrued asset impairment of about 638 million in Q4 (a total of 730 million yuan for the whole year), mainly due to inventory price losses.
New projects are progressing steadily
? Lithium salt: The total future production capacity of lithium compounds is planned to be 143,800 tons. 1) The Anju plant is currently in the process of climbing production capacity of 20,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate; 2) It is planned to build a production base in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu to produce 30,000 tons of lithium hydroxide per year; 3) It is planned to build a second phase of the 24,000-ton battery-grade lithium hydroxide project in Quinana, Australia; 4) Feasibility studies are underway for the construction of the 1000-ton lithium metal project in Chongqing.
? Resources: Yajiangzola has 632,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent resources, with a resource grade of 1.3%. The company is actively and orderly promoting work related to the Yajiangzola spodumene ore mining project. 1) In May 2023, Shenghe Lithium, the company's former wholly-owned subsidiary, introduced Zijin Mining as a strategic investor. After the capital increase was completed, the company held 39.20% of Shenghe Lithium's shares; Shehong Tianqi, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, held 40.80% of Shenghe Lithium's shares, and Hainan Zijin Lithium held 20% of Shenghe Lithium's shares; 2) In January 2024, Shenghe Lithium obtained the filing of the Yajiang County Development and Reform Bureau on the Tuola Spodumene Tegou Tailings Depot project; 3) March 24 Shenghe Lithium collaborates with other lithium industry companies in the methylcard mining area Invest in the establishment of a joint venture to build a 220kV power transmission and transformation project to meet the electricity needs of all parties; the establishment of the joint venture will provide infrastructure support for the subsequent progress of the Zola project.
Investment advice:
The estimated revenue for 2024-2026 is 143.10, 166.62, and 18.156 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit of 42.22, 51.95, and 6.865 billion yuan, corresponding EPS is 2.57, 3.17, and 4.18 yuan/share, respectively. Currently, the corresponding PE price is 19.8, 16.1, and 12.2 times, maintaining the “buy-A” rating, and the target price for 6 months is adjusted to 64.3 yuan/share.
Risk warning: lithium prices fluctuate greatly, demand falls short of expectations, and project progress falls short of expectations