Focus on the Hong Kong and US stock earnings season

The Q1 earnings season for US stocks has quietly arrived! Profit expectations in the four major industries have soared. How can investors make money?

Futu News · Apr 8 21:27

本周，随着达美航空、摩根大通、富国银行和花旗等重要公司财报来临，美股2024年第一季度财报季也缓缓拉开帷幕。此前，以“七巨头”和AI概念主导的市场走势强劲，美股一季度火热收官。借着新一个财报季的“东风”，投资者如何在各个行业继续掘金？

经济强劲！标普500指数有望连续三个季度正增长

在强劲的经济增长和消费者需求推动下，标普500指数成分股有望连续第三个季度实现盈利增长。市场普遍预计，标普500指数成分股公司2024年Q1利润同比增长3.2%，2024全年利润同比增长10.9%；Q1营收将同比增长3.5%，全年营收同比增长5.1%。

BI高级分析师Wendy Soong表示：“由于交易员预计美联储将在今年晚些时候降息，这可能会带来更强劲的消费者支出和经济活动，进而带来更好的盈利增长和更高的股价。”

在标普500指数的11个行业中，预计有7个行业将实现收益同比增长，其中公用事业、信息技术、通信服务和可选消费行业的表现将尤为突出，能源、材料、医疗保健等行业盈利增长可能较为低迷。

在新一个财报季来临前，分析师通常会对每股收益预估进行调整。而收益增长预期位居前列的4个板块，也在近期相继获得每股收益上调，分别为通信服务（+2.2%）、信息技术（+1.3%）、非必需消费品（+1%）及公用事业（+0.4%）。

利润双位数大增，哪些行业“领头羊”最能赚钱？

以当前华尔街分析师的预估来看，公用事业、信息技术、通信服务及可选消费行业将是这一财报季增长动能最强的行业，那么，这四个行业分别有何“增长极”？

公用事业：电力板块一枝独秀

市场预计公用事业行业的收益增长率将达到所有行业的最高的水平，为23.7%。其中，公用事业板块的三个细分行业预计将出现两位数的增长，分别为：电力公用事业（43%）、独立电力和可再生电力生产商（40%）和天然气公用事业（11%）。高盛分析师特别指出，$NRG Energy (NRG.US)$、$太平洋煤电 (PCG.US)$在电力行业的增长将令人瞩目。

信息技术：英伟达、半导体股仍是最大亮点

信息技术行业的盈利增长率预计将达到20.4%的同比增幅，其中两个子行业预计将实现双位数的显著增长：半导体和半导体设备行业预计增长率高达75%，软件行业则预计为15%。

其中，$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$仍是盈利增长的最大亮点，其表现远超过行业平均水平。英伟达的每股收益将达到5.13美元，若剔除该股影响，信息技术行业的同比收益增长率或从20.4%大幅降至7.7%。

通信服务：Meta、奈飞引领利润增长

通信服务行业的盈利增长主要会由$Meta Platforms (META.US)$、$奈飞 (NFLX.US)$为首的社群平台及娱乐服务公司推动，但比较传统的综合电信服务商，如AT&T、Verizon等可能则尚未走出获利衰退的阴影。

可选消费：亚马逊领衔，零售业将备受关注

华尔街预计可选消费行业的业绩表现将喜忧参半，各个细分行业分化较大。休闲产品、综合零售业盈利表现将大放异彩，$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$将备受关注。此外与休闲相关的旅宿、餐饮也能有所提升；然而，汽车行业恐持续衰退，料录得-28%的利润跌幅。

美股一季度火热收官，接下来市场焦点何在？

2024年一季度，美股昂头向上，标普500指数以10%的涨幅火热收官。其中，仍是信息技术、通信服务行业中的各个细分板块领跑市场。随着2024年首个季度放榜在即，美股涨势的广度能否扩大？

根据Factset的数据，分析师对标普500指数未来12个月的平均目标价为5758.66，较4月4日收盘价仍有约11.9%的涨幅。从行业层面来看，信息技术、医疗保健、房地产、可选消费行业有望跑赢标普500指数，潜在涨幅分别为15.4%、14.9%、14.5%和14.3%。

综合标普500成分股的所有股票评级来看，能源和通信服务行业的未来走势最受分析师看好。这两个行业获得买入评级的股票比例最高，均为63%，其次为信息技术行业，买入评级占比58%；其中能源行业得到卖出评级的股票比例仅有2%。

分个股来看，标普500指数中获得最多买入评级的前十大股票分别为：$达美航空 (DAL.US)$、$Targa Resources (TRGP.US)$、$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$、$微软 (MSFT.US)$、$斯伦贝谢 (SLB.US)$、$Lamb Weston (LW.US)$、$亚历山大房地产 (ARE.US)$、$印北瓦电 (NI.US)$、$优步 (UBER.US)$、$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$。

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亲爱的牛友，

本次财报季您最关注哪个行业？

又将押注哪只股票的表现呢？

欢迎留言讨论~

编辑/new

This week, with the arrival of financial reports from important companies such as Delta Air Lines, J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citibank, the first quarter earnings season for US stocks slowly began. Previously, the market trend, which was dominated by the “Big Seven” and AI concepts, was strong, and the first quarter of US stocks came to a hot end. With the “Dongfeng” of the new earnings season, how can investors continue to make money in various industries?

Strong economy! The S&P 500 index is expected to grow for three consecutive quarters

Driven by strong economic growth and consumer demand, the S&P 500 index constituent stocks are expected to achieve a third consecutive quarter of profit growth. The market generally expects S&P 500 component companies to increase 3.2% year-on-year profit in Q1 and 10.9% year-on-year in 2024; Q1 revenue will increase 3.5% year-on-year, and full-year revenue will increase 5.1% year on year.

BI senior analyst Wendy Soong said, “As traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year, this may lead to stronger consumer spending and economic activity, which in turn will lead to better profit growth and higher share prices.”

Of the 11 industries in the S&P 500 index, 7 industries are expected to achieve year-on-year earnings growth. Among them, utilities, information technology, communication services, and optional consumer industries will perform particularly well, and profit growth in the energy, materials, and healthcare industries is likely to be sluggish.

Before the new earnings season begins, analysts usually adjust earnings estimates per share. Meanwhile, the four sectors with the highest earnings growth expectations have also received recent increases in earnings per share, namely communications services (+2.2%), information technology (+1.3%), non-essential consumer goods (+1%), and utilities (+0.4%).

Profits have increased dramatically in double digits. Which industry “leaders” make the most money?

Judging from current Wall Street analysts' estimates, the utilities, information technology, communications services, and optional consumer industries will be the industries with the strongest growth momentum this earnings season. So, what are the “growth poles” for each of these four industries?

Utilities: The electricity sector excels

The market expects the utility sector's revenue growth rate to reach the highest level of any industry, at 23.7%. Among them, the three segments of the utilities sector are expected to see double-digit growth: electric utilities (43%), independent power and renewable electricity producers (40%), and natural gas utilities (11%). Goldman Sachs analysts specifically pointed out that$NRG Energy (NRG.US)$,$PG&E Corp (PCG.US)$The growth in the electricity sector will be impressive.

Information technology: Nvidia and semiconductor stocks are still the biggest highlights

The IT industry's profit growth rate is expected to reach a year-on-year increase of 20.4%. Two of the sub-sectors are expected to achieve significant double-digit growth: the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industry is expected to grow at a rate of 75%, and the software industry is expected to grow at a rate of 15%.

Among them,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It is still the biggest highlight of profit growth, and its performance far exceeds the industry average. Nvidia's earnings per share will reach $5.13. Excluding the impact of this share, the IT industry's year-on-year earnings growth rate may drop sharply from 20.4% to 7.7%.

Communications services: Meta, Netflix lead profit growth

Profit growth in the communications services industry will be mainly driven by$Meta Platforms (META.US)$,$Netflix (NFLX.US)$It is promoted by leading social platforms and entertainment service companies, but more traditional integrated telecom service providers, such as AT&T and Verizon, may not have escaped the shadow of declining profits.

Optional spending: Amazon leads the way, retail will be in the spotlight

Wall Street expects the performance of the optional consumer sector to be mixed, and the various segments are highly divided. The profit performance of the leisure products and comprehensive retail industries will shine brightly.$Amazon (AMZN.US)$It will get a lot of attention. In addition, leisure-related lodging and restaurants can also improve; however, the automotive industry is likely to continue to decline, and profits are expected to drop -28%.

The first quarter of the US stock market came to a hot end. What is the market focus next?

In the first quarter of 2024, US stocks held their heads high, and the S&P 500 index ended with a 10% increase. Among them, it is still leading the market in various segments in the information technology and communication services industry. As the first quarter of 2024 is imminent, can the breadth of US stock gains expand?

According to Factset data, analysts' average target price for the S&P 500 index for the next 12 months is 5758.66, which is still an increase of about 11.9% from the closing price on April 4. From an industry perspective, the information technology, healthcare, real estate, and optional consumer industries are expected to outperform the S&P 500 index, with potential gains of 15.4%, 14.9%, 14.5%, and 14.3%, respectively.

Looking at all stock ratings of S&P 500 constituent stocks, the future trend of the energy and communications services industry is most favored by analysts. These two industries received the highest share of buy-rated stocks, at 63%, followed by the information technology industry, which accounted for 58% of the buy-rated shares; of these, the energy industry received only 2% of the sell-rated shares.

Looking at individual stocks, the top ten stocks with the most buy ratings in the S&P 500 Index are:$Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$,$Targa Resources (TRGP.US)$,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$,$Schlumberger (SLB.US)$,$Lamb Weston (LW.US)$,$Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc (ARE.US)$,$NiSource (NI.US)$,$Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$.

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Dear cowboy friend,

Which industry are you most concerned about this earnings season?

Which stock's performance will you bet on again?

Welcome to leave a message to discuss ~

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