Tesla, Inc. will release three quarterly results after trading on Wednesday. Musk previously said that Q3 and Q4 would make a positive profit, but from the delivery data estimates, we judge that there is likely to be a significant deviation between the actual performance and Iron Man's expectations, and revenue may even be negative for the first time, which is seriously divorced from investors' long-standing impression of Tesla, Inc. 's sustained high growth.

First, sales volume: Q3 delivery fell into low growth

Let's start with the delivery.

Tesla, Inc. Q3 delivered 97000 units, + 16% year-on-year and + 2% month-on-month. In retrospect, 3Q18 and 4Q18 delivery increased by 219% and 203% respectively compared with the same period last year. On the surface, delivery has hit a new high, but in fact it is only the same as Q2, and the growth momentum has slowed sharply.

If you break down the delivery, you will find that: 1) the main market, the United States, sold 23000 units in September, down 23% from the same period last year.

2) China and Europe have become new markets. 58000 units were sold in Europe from January to August, compared with + 263% in January-September in China, and + 196% in China (Model 3 began to be delivered in Europe and China in February this year)

3) the average monthly sales of Model models last year was 8000 pounds, but the squeeze effect was further magnified when it dropped to 5000 pounds in the first nine months of this year.

The decline in the US market was due to the concentrated release of orders to boost the base at the end of last year, but it is also an indisputable fact that local demand is gradually peaking. In addition, from the European, Chinese delivery volume point of view, the two markets began to stabilize, so different from the past, Tesla, Inc. from Q3, Q4 into low growth.

II. Performance indicators:Negative revenue growth for the first time?

If the delivery in the third quarter is only 2% compared with the previous quarter, can we achieve the "positive profit" expectation?

According to Bloomberg's consensus forecast, Q3 had revenue of $6.37 billion, down 6.7% from a year earlier, adjusted net profit of-$48 million, and a significant reduction in loss from the previous month (Q2 loss of 316 million), but no profit.

Negative revenue growthHey, is there a mistake here?？Although delivery has moved from Q3 to low growth, it has reached an all-time high and revenue is supposed to be growing.

You may have overlooked the fact that Tesla, Inc. has been lowering product prices this year in order to reduce hedging subsidies. In the first half of the year, the price of the whole department was reduced by US $3100 per Taiwan (the rate of subsidy decline in the first half of the year was US $3750 per Taiwan, which is basically the same).

Product price reduction + Model 3 sales increased, 3Q18 bike revenue of 70400 US dollars, 2Q19 dropped to 54300 US dollars, July Model 3 price reduction of 1000 US dollars, roughly judged that the bicycle revenue in the third quarter is not higher than that in the second quarter.

Since the sales structure in the second and third quarters is basically the same, assuming that the bicycle revenue in the third quarter is still US $54300, the known sales volume increased by 16% compared with the same period last year, so the revenue decreased by 11% year-on-year (1.16% 0.77% 0.89), which was even bigger than Bloomberg expected. is it because of better growth in energy and services business? In a general range, will the decline in revenue be between 6.7% and 11%?

In terms of net profit, I think we should also be cautious.

First of all, in terms of scale, Q3 production and sales have not increased compared with Q2, so a single discount may no longer decline significantly, and this index has been relatively stable since the second half of 2018. At the same time, the pressure of further Model 3 price cuts on gross profit margin in July should not be ignored. Individuals judge that Q3 gross profit margin may not be higher than 20%.

For the rest, operating expenses (including R & D, sales and administrative expenses) may have improved, which included an one-time restructuring fee of $117 million last quarter.

Taken together, we do not see any favorable factors that can significantly support the turnaround in the third quarter.

Finally, Q3 operating cash flow is expected to decrease because of the rise in capital expenditure in Shanghai. Capital expenditure for the first half of the year is 530 million, and the annual budget is 15-2 billion, so there should be an upward trend in the second half of the year.

Tesla, Inc. aims to deliver 36-400000 units this year, an increase of 47%, 63%, and 255000 units from January to September, an increase of 66% over the same period last year. Both Musk and investors have great expectations and confidence in the company's future growth prospects, but ignore the downward pressure on subsidies.

Tesla, Inc. will announce the financial results after Wednesday. What is the specific result, surprise or surprise? Let's take a look.