持续推进疫苗新产品研发，增加新的利润增长点：2023 年公司研发投入0.93 亿元，占营业收入比例3.87%。冻干人用狂犬病疫苗（Vero 细胞）、吸附破伤风疫苗于 2023 年 2 月双双取得《药品注册证书》，正在开展生产及销售工作；此外，公司正在积极开展流感病毒 mRNA 疫苗等多款 mRNA 疫苗的研发。随着公司产品梯队持续丰富，未来的收入结构将更加多元化，实现长期稳健增长。Incident: The company released its 2023 annual report, achieving operating income of 2,410 million yuan, +32.03%; net profit to mother of 860 million yuan, +65.49% year over year; net profit without return to mother of 758 million yuan, +67.82% year over year; net operating cash flow of 888 million yuan, +207.63% year over year; EPS (basic) 1.43 yuan. The results are in line with market expectations.
Comment:
Revenue and cash flow improved dramatically, and public willingness to get vaccinated increased: 2023Q1-Q4, the company's revenue in a single quarter was 1.45/0.05/15.69/ 692 million yuan, respectively, +892.96%/-99.54%/+214.16%/+160.44%; net profit to mother 0.94/0.14/5.21/230 billion yuan, year-on-year reversing/ -95.23%/+152.51%/+1442.56%; net profit not attributable to mother 0.68/-0.10/4.97/2.03 100 million yuan, reversing loss/turning losses/ +164.03% /reversing losses year over year. The 2023 batch issuance situation was: 6 batches of trivalent influenza were issued, -50.00%; 88 batches of quadrivalent influenza were issued, -3.30% compared to the same period; 8 batches of rabies were issued; and 1 batch of tetanus vaccine were issued. In 2023, influenza vaccine revenue was 2.403 billion yuan, +32.19% year on year; sales volume of vaccine products was 19.3975 million units, +33.38% year over year. The increase in sales volume was mainly due to the increase in people's willingness to get vaccinated. Net operating cash flow improved substantially, mainly due to increased sales repayments.
Continue to promote research and development of new vaccine products and increase new profit growth points: in 2023, the company invested 93 million yuan in R&D, accounting for 3.87% of revenue. The freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (Vero cells) and adsorbed tetanus vaccine both obtained the “Drug Registration Certificate” in February 2023, and production and sales are ongoing; in addition, the company is actively developing various mRNA vaccines such as the influenza virus mRNA vaccine. As the company's product lineup continues to be rich, the future revenue structure will be more diversified to achieve long-term steady growth.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Considering the influenza pandemic and changes in the market competition pattern, the 2024-2025 net profit forecast was lowered to 10.85/1,322 billion yuan (the original forecast was 12.62/1,614 billion yuan, down 14%/18%, respectively), and the additional forecast for 2026 was 1,561 billion yuan, +26.18%/21.86%/18.06% YoY. According to the latest share capital estimate, EPS is 1.81/2.20/2.60 yuan, and PE is 13/ 11/9 times, maintaining the “buy” rating, considering that there is still a lot of room for improvement in influenza vaccine coverage.
Risk warning: Intent to get vaccinated against influenza increases the risk of falling short of expectations; risk of worsening market competition.
