Today, the new town is going higher.

By the close, Metro Hyatt was up more than 6%, and its share price was not only back before the crash, but also hit an all-time high.

A-share Metro Holdings rose 5.19%, with a turnover of 900 million yuan and a latest market capitalization of 74 billion.

Metro Development Holdings, on the other hand, rose 4.36%, with the latest market capitalization approaching HK $50 billion.

Less than four months have passed since July 3, the day of the "crash". Are investment opportunities reappearing in the new town system?

The chairman of Metro Holdings molested a girl and caused a crash.

On July 3, the exposure of the chairman of Metro Holdings for molesting a girl shocked the market and caused public outrage. Then Metro Holdings announced that on July 3, the company received notice from the Putuo Branch of Shanghai Public Security Bureau that Wang Zhenhua, the actual controller and chairman of the company, was criminally detained for personal reasons, and the Metro system plummeted collectively.

On the same day, the share price of Metro Development Holdings, a Hong Kong listed platform in the whirlpool of public opinion, plunged rapidly, falling more than 20%. Some investors lamented: "tens of thousands of shareholders will become victims of this incident together with girls."."

But is it really possible to reverse the situation in less than four months?

Q3 under Black Swan: sales in the first three quarters were 197.6 billion, leading the top ten real estate companies in year-on-year growth.

On the evening of October 14, the announcement system of listed companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange disclosed the operating reports of Metro Holdings in September and the third quarter of 2019. According to the report, Metro Holdings accumulated contract sales of 197.691 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 23.89 percent over the same period last year, and a cumulative sales area of 17.2306 million square meters, an increase of 35.43 percent over the same period last year.

Among them, the contract sales in September reached 26.225 billion yuan, with a sales area of 2.2326 million square meters, up 18% and 33% respectively over the same period last year. It is worth mentioning that the rental and management fee income of Wuyue Square from January to September was 2.762 billion yuan, an increase of 95% over the same period last year.

According to the Carey sales ranking, Metro Holdings continues to rank eighth in the industry in terms of sales volume from January to September, and has opened a certain gap with the ninth place, with a solid position. So far, Metro Holdings has achieved 73.2% of its annual sales target of 270 billion yuan. The fourth quarter is the key period for housing enterprises to sprint the annual performance target, and it is also the node period for Metro Holdings to accelerate supply. It is expected that its sales scale in the fourth quarter will continue to increase steadily, providing a strong guarantee for the completion of the annual sales target.

Expert interpretation: investment opportunities reappear in a new town with black swans

Chen Haitao: investment value sharing of Metro Holdings

The new city has a history of 26 years. Starting from Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province, the headquarters moved to Putuo District, Shanghai, with heavy storage in the Yangtze River Delta and layout throughout China. The sales volume soared from 28 in 2013 to No. 8 in 2018. It reflects the excellent team and "commercial + residential" two-wheel drive model innovation.

After the accident in the new town, according to the trample survey, everything is business as usual; first, sales volume is business as usual, and second, the time of the accident, its net debt ratio is 65.5%, which is relatively strong. A year ago, the net debt ratio was very high, 110%.

After the accident in the new town, sell projects and recover liquidity. In the first half of 2019, there were 45.6 billion in cash and 19.7 billion in short-term liabilities. It is easy to repay this year, with a net debt ratio of 65%. Upstream and downstream business transactions account for 32.4 billion. We may also be worried about Metro's team instability, but Metro Holdings granted a total of 27.2324 million interests, or 1.21% of the total equity, to the 108 incentives on Sept. 27.

This time in 2019, the total number of incentives is 108 people, including directors and senior managers, middle managers and core backbone of the company (including holding subsidiaries). The boss is more generous.

We can see from various signs that Metro Holdings has normal operation, normal team building, and enhanced equity incentives. Finally, let's talk about valuation.

This valuation has several parts, and the annual profit in the next two years can reach 20 billion. If calculated by 5 times pe, the reasonable valuation is 100 billion. Second, the number of Wuyue Square will increase in a few years, the proportion of rental income and net profit will also increase, profit sustainability will be stronger, forming diversification, it does not have to explore, there is a clear model.

If these things slowly calm down, the reasonable valuation of the new town is conservative 100 billion, which is currently more than 60 billion.

Looking a little further, I personally judge that the debt of the whole industry will be reduced, and that the debt of the new city will be greatly reduced. I saw several cities, including Hengyang City, Hunan Province, waiting for Wuyue Square, and nearby residents were looking forward to it on the forum and online. This is a quadripartite win-win project, all regions, including the government, residents and businesses need employment, Wuyue Square can solve the local employment of thousands of people, such a good project can continue to expand. The growth of the new town mainly depends on Wuyue Square and the future on Standard Wanda Square.