HAIDILAO(6862.HK):LOOKING FOR EXPANSION OPPORTUNITIES WITH DOWNSIDE PROTECTION
HAIDILAO(6862.HK):LOOKING FOR EXPANSION OPPORTUNITIES WITH DOWNSIDE PROTECTION
We think Haidilao's downside is protected by its dividend (5.6% FY24E yield and the 90% payout ratio should sustain into the future), while the upside is highly dependent on its speed of store expansion (which is still very slow but we tend to think it will accelerate once the franchising model is finalized). Hence, we maintain BUY with a TP of HK$ 21.52, based on a 20x FY24E P/E. Noted that in the long run, the lack of growth drivers is still a concern.
我們認爲海底撈的下行空間受其股息保護（5.6％的 FY24E 收益率和90％的派息率應持續到未來），而上行空間在很大程度上取決於其門店擴張的速度（仍然非常緩慢，但我們傾向於認爲特許經營模式最終確定後它將加速）。因此，根據20倍的 FY24E 市盈率，我們維持買入，目標價爲21.52港元。請注意，從長遠來看，缺乏增長動力仍然是一個問題。
The momentum so far in 2024 is still intact. While the industry is still suffering (most of the brands are experiencing SSS decline), management highlighted that Haidilao's table turnover has further increased by over 30% in Jan-Feb 2024 (table turnover for CNY/ Valentine's Day were at around 5x/ 6x). The level retreated a bit in Mar 2024 but it was normal and was only due to seasonality.
2024年迄今爲止的勢頭仍然完好無損。儘管該行業仍在遭受損失（大多數品牌的SSS下滑），但管理層強調，海底撈的餐桌營業額在2024年1月至2月進一步增長了30％以上（人民幣/情人節的餐桌營業額約爲5倍/6倍）。該水平在2024年3月略有回落，但這是正常的，只是季節性所致。
Management believes gradual improvement is likely and we think the margin can still improve. Management also believes the SSS recovery rate can still gradually improve throughout the year (table turn should climb while ASP may stabilize). Thanks to the refinement in staff costs structure (hiring more part-time staffs and the introduction of low base salary plus high bonus), breakeven point of table turnover had been lowered from 3x to around 2x to 3x. Therefore, as we expect table turnover to go up further to 4.2x in FY24E (from 3.8x in FY23), the OP margin could also increase to 14.6% in FY24E (from 14.3%).
管理層認爲逐步改善是可能的，我們認爲利潤率仍然可以提高。管理層還認爲，全年SSS的回收率仍可以逐步提高（局面應該會攀升，而ASP可能會穩定下來）。由於員工成本結構的完善（僱用更多的兼職員工，引入了低基本工資和高額獎金），員工流失率的盈虧平衡點已從3倍降低到2倍至3倍左右。因此，由於我們預計 FY24E 的餐桌營業額將進一步上升至4.2倍（從23財年的3.8倍），FY24E 的營業利潤率也可能從14.3％增加到14.6％。
Targeting single digit % increase in store counts in FY24E (including both self-operated and franchised). Management is still highly prudent about its store expansion plan (because of the lesson learnt from its overexpansion in FY21) and only targets a single-digit increase in store numbers in FY24E (CMBI est. around 50), which included both direct- operated and franchised stores. The Company currently has 13 stores which have already signed the lease agreement and those are mostly located in the tier 2 or below cities. For the franchise model, the franchisee will provide the local knowledge and capital while many other duties (e.g. supply chain management, training of staffs, store management) will still be handled by Haidilao and consistent with the self-operated stores.
目標是 FY24E（包括自營和特許經營）的門店數量增加個位數百分比。管理層對其門店擴張計劃仍然高度謹慎（因爲從21財年的過度擴張中吸取了教訓），其目標僅包括直營門店和特許經營門店在內的 FY24E（CMBI 預計約爲50家）的門店數量增加個位數。該公司目前有13家門店已經簽署了租賃協議，這些門店大多位於二線及以下城市。對於特許經營模式，加盟商將提供當地知識和資金，而許多其他職責（例如供應鏈管理、員工培訓、門店管理）仍將由海底撈承擔，並與自營門店保持一致。
Maintain BUY and trimmed TP to HK$ 21.52, based on 20x FY24E P/E (cut from 26x FY24E to factor in the slowdown in future net profit growth and sector de-rating). We raised our FY24E/ 25E net profit forecasts by 12%/ 15% to factor in: 1) impressive table turnover recovery, 2) better sourcing and procurement costs and 3) greater operating leverage. The stock is trading at 16x FY24E P/E, not too demanding vs its 5-year avg. of 42x. It also has a 5.6% FY24E yield, fairly attractive.
根據20倍的 FY24E 市盈率（考慮到未來淨利潤增長放緩和行業評級下調，從26倍的 FY24E 下調），維持買入並將目標價下調至21.52港元。我們將24E/25E財年的淨利潤預期提高了12％/15％，這是因爲：1）令人印象深刻的餐桌營業額恢復，2）更好的採購和採購成本以及3）更高的運營槓桿率。該股的交易價格爲 FY24E 市盈率的16倍，與其5年平均市盈率爲42倍相比，要求不高。它的 FY24E 收益率也爲5.6％，相當有吸引力。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。