The stock of hepatitis C patients is about 10 million, and the elimination plan promotes Kailliwei's continued release: According to data published by Polaris Observatory HCV Collaborators, China estimates 9.487 million cases of HCV infection in 2020. In 2021, nine ministries and commissions including the National Health Commission issued documents to promote efforts to eliminate the public health hazards of hepatitis C. The company's hepatitis C DAA drug Kailliwei was approved for marketing in 2020. It is the first pan-genotyped product included in the national medical insurance catalogue. As the company's sales capacity is strengthened and the clean-up plan is implemented, it is expected to drive Kailiwei's rapid growth.
Long-acting interferon has entered an advanced stage of clinical treatment, and the hepatitis B clinical cure market has gradually materialized: According to the “Chronic Hepatitis B Prevention Guidelines (2022 Edition)” and “Healthy China Action (2019-2030)”, there are about 86 million people infected with hepatitis B in China, including 28 million chronic hepatitis B. Currently, no products have been approved for clinical treatment of hepatitis B. The company's long-acting interferon was approved as an indication for hepatitis C in 2018, and registered clinical trials for clinical treatment of hepatitis B began in 2021. As of January 2024, the only long-acting interferon in China is Tebao Biopegerbin. It is expected that after the launch of the company's products, it will open the second curve of the company's performance growth.
Profit forecast and investment rating: According to the company's 2023 performance report, we lowered the company's performance expectations. We estimate revenue of 1,434 million yuan/1,829 million yuan/2,387 million yuan in 2023-2025, and net profit of 116 million yuan/189 million yuan/291 million yuan, corresponding to 47.42X/29.00X/18.88X. We believe that the release of innovative hepatitis C drugs can be expected, and long-term interferon products are expected to gradually be implemented, driving the company's continued growth in performance. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Product sales volume falls short of expectations, product collection price reduction exceeds expectations, progress in innovative drug development falls short of expectations, risk of fluctuations in the company's operations and management, and the company's performance falls short of expectations.