Incident: The company released its 2023 performance report, achieving operating income of 343,074 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% (adjusted, same below); realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 59.694 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the company after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 62,868 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.6% year on year. Achieved basic earnings per share of $3.00, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%, and net operating cash flow of 89.687 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%.
Sales prices fell year-on-year, and performance declined slightly, and Changxie continued to maintain high gross profit due to a decline in its share. The company's coal division achieved operating income of 273.306 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, operating costs of 185.752 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year, and total profit of 58.530 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8%.
In terms of production and sales, commercial coal production was 325 million tons in 2023, up 3.5% year on year; coal sales were 450 million tons, up 7.7% year on year. In terms of price, the average sales price without tax was 584 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%. Among them, the price of self-produced coal without tax was 548 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%.
In terms of cost, the unit cost of the company's own coal production was 179.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5% over the previous year. Gross margin was 32%, down 3.9 percentage points year over year. In terms of sales structure, the company is still mainly based on medium- to long-term contracts. Among them, the annual Changxiehe monthly share accounts for 57.5% (+4.5pct) and 24.4% (-7.6pct), respectively. The corresponding prices are 500 yuan/ton and 808 yuan/ton, down 2.9% and 7.4% from the previous year. In terms of additional production capacity, the first and second wells of Xinjie in the Taigemiao mining area of Xinjie in Inner Mongolia have obtained mining licenses. The Baode coal mine increased production capacity from 5 million tons/year to 8 million tons/year, and the increase in coal production capacity continued to stabilize the leading position of domestic coal.
Electricity sales in the power generation business increased and costs decreased, and sector profits increased sharply by 34.1%.
In 2022, the company's power generation division achieved operating revenue of 92.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, operating costs of 76.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, and total profit of 10.64 billion yuan, an increase of 34.1% over the previous year. The power generation capacity was 212.26 billion kilowatt-hours, up 11.0% year on year, and total electricity sales reached 19.75 billion kilowatt-hours, up 11.1% year on year, of which market-based electricity sales volume was 194.56 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 97.4% of total electricity sales; the average unit price of electricity sold was 414.0 yuan/megawatt-hour, down 1.0% year on year, and the unit electricity sales cost was 363.0 yuan/megawatt-hour, down 4.7% year on year. Achieved a gross profit margin of 16.9%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points over the previous year. In 2023, units 1 and 2 of the company's Yueyang project in Hunan and units 1 and 2 of the first phase of the Guangdong Qingyuan project were put into operation. In addition, the company's coal-fired power project increased revenue growth. Furthermore, the company's coal-fired purchase price declined in 2023, which led to a sharp increase in the company's profits in the power sector, demonstrating the advantages of integrated coal and power management.
The railway business is operating steadily, and renovation and capacity expansion continue to advance. The Railway Division achieved revenue of 42,961 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8% over the previous year, and a gross profit margin of 37.0%, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points. Total realized profit was 11.04 billion yuan, down 11.9% year on year. Railway unit transportation costs were 0.085 yuan/ton/km, up 10.4% year on year. In 2024, the 300 million ton capacity expansion project for the Shenshuo Railway and 450 million ton of Shuohuang Railway will be promoted to increase the transportation capacity of the main channel and help increase the profit scale of the sector.
Maintaining a high percentage of dividends is worth holding in a stable manner for a long time. According to the announcement, the company plans to distribute cash dividends of RMB 44.903 billion (tax included, same below), accounting for 60% of net profit attributable to the company's shareholders in 2023, corresponding to a dividend of 2.26 yuan per share. Based on the closing price of 39.05 yuan on April 2, 2024, the dividend ratio is 5.79%. The company has maintained a long-term stable level of high dividend ratio in the industry. As an energy giant integrating coal and electricity transportation, profits and dividends are stable, and it is worth holding for a long time.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's net profit from 2024 to 2026 is estimated to be 611.2/625.8/65.56 billion yuan, respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 12.7/12.4/11.8 times. Considering that the company is a leading domestic thermal coal company, it continues to benefit from production capacity scale and cost advantages. Under high dividends, the long-term investment value is obvious, maintaining the company's purchase rating.