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郑煤机(601717):煤机业务持续繁荣 汽零转型未来可期

Zheng Coal Machinery (601717): The coal engine business continues to prosper, and the transformation of gasoline zero can be expected in the future

海通證券 ·  Apr 6

Net profit attributable to mother in 2023 was +29% YoY, while 23Q4 deducted non-net profit +21% month-on-month. In 2023, the company achieved net profit of 364/3.27 billion yuan, +13.7%/28.9% year-on-year, after deducting non-net profit of 3.03 billion yuan, +50.1% year-on-year. Q4 In a single quarter, the company's net profit to mother was 807 million yuan, +40%/+2.6% year over year, after deducting non-net profit of 850 million yuan, or +132.8%/+21.2% year over year.

Various indicators in the coal machine sector have reached record highs, and domestic and foreign markets have achieved remarkable results. In 2023, the company's coal machine segment revenue/net profit was 18.8.5/3.19 billion yuan, +12.5%/+25.3% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 16.9%, +1.7pct year-on-year. Q4 In a single quarter, the company's coal machine sector revenue/net profit was 4.68/700 million yuan, -2.1%/-10.7% month-on-month; net profit margin was 15.0%, -1.4pct month-on-month. In 2023, the company's coal machine business reached a record high in all aspects of orders, repayment, output value, output volume, per capita efficiency, R&D results, etc., and won bids for a number of complete international high-end market projects. The international market ordered 1,360 billion yuan throughout the year, an increase of more than 40% over the previous year.

The impact of eliminating impairment and asset disposal in the automotive sector doubled year-on-year, accelerating the transformation of the new energy business. 1) Sector: In 2023, the company's auto zero sector revenue/net profit was 17.57/ 280 million yuan, +14.9%/-22.3% year-on-year. Excluding the impact of ASIMCO's Shanxi goodwill impairment preparation plan in 2023 and the auto parts sector's asset disposal revenue in the same period last year, the net profit of the auto parts sector increased by 140 million yuan year-on-year in 2023. 2) ASIMCO: Sales revenue increased by about 24% year on year. On the one hand, it stabilized its current market segment leading position, and on the other hand, made every effort to develop the NEV parts market. The main components of ASIMCO's intelligent air suspension system were successfully developed, and the entry of potential suppliers from many leading OEMs was completed. The NEV parts business revenue in '23 was about 370 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 100%. 3) SEG:

SEG's revenue in 2023 was 13.36/190 million yuan, +12.6%/243% year-on-year, mainly due to SEG business restructuring, cost reduction and efficiency. In 2023, SONGE continued to optimize its global layout, rapidly increasing the market share of 12V and 48V BRM in Europe and the US, while also accelerating the development of the new energy drive motor business.

The spin-off of Hengda Intelligent Control to the Science and Technology Innovation Board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange progressed steadily. Through this spin-off, the company will further focus on comprehensive coal mining equipment manufacturing and auto parts business, improve the technology and quality of comprehensive coal mining equipment, and improve the high reliability, stability and ease of use of products; Hengda Intelligent Control will further achieve business focus, enhance the level of specialized operation, promote the integrated development of digital intelligent technology and the coal industry, and raise the level of intelligent coal mines. The spin-off was accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and entered the review stage.

Profit forecasting and valuation. We believe that the company's coal engine business is growing steadily, the zero auto business is recovering, the pace of transformation of new energy sources is firm and steady, and long-term development is worth looking forward to. We expect the company's net profit to be 37.3/43.4/94 billion yuan in 24-26, and the corresponding EPS is 2.09/2.41/2.76 yuan. Referring to comparable companies, we will give 9 to 10 times PE in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 18.81 to 20.9 yuan, maintaining the “superior to the market” rating.

Risk warning. Demand for downstream parts has declined, and the price of raw steel has risen sharply

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