Introduction to this report:
Surrounding passenger flow is still under pressure. Real estate depreciation and year-end expense settlement in Wuzhen are dragging down performance, but passenger flow in the two towns has improved marginally, and concerns are picking up in the core scenic area's operating data.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Considering the impact of the resumption of short-term long-distance travel on the diversion of surrounding tours, maintain the 2024-2025 profit forecast, add a 2026 EPS forecast of 0.55/0.61/0.66 yuan, respectively, and maintain the company's target price of 14 yuan.
Performance summary: The company achieved revenue of 9.235 billion yuan in 2023, recovering to 69% of 2019, and gross profit of 2,356 billion yuan, recovering to 70% in 2019, gross profit of 24.45%, net profit to mother of 194 million yuan, recovering to 34% in 2019, withholding 130 million yuan of non-return mother, and recovering to 30% in 2019. Among them, 2023Q4 achieved revenue of 2.9 billion yuan, recovering to 64% in 2019, recovering to 57% of gross profit, and a net profit loss of 23 million yuan to mother, and a profit of 223 million yuan for the same period in 2019.
The surrounding tourist flow is still under pressure, and the two towns are steadily recovering. ① In terms of business segmentation, IT product sales/corporate exhibitions/scenic spot operation/tourism product services/hotel revenue recovered to 101/82/98/5/26/ 74% in 2019, respectively, and gross profit recovered to 61/86/90/ profit to loss/41/ 26%, respectively, and core scenic spots have not yet recovered to before the epidemic; ② Tax and additional/sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 0.52/9.27/7.87/0.08/2.44%, respectively, compared with '19 -0.17/-1.64/+2.59, respectively. /-0.02/+1.61pct
Focus on rationalizing mechanisms and improving organizational potential. Considering that the team organization and core resources are still adapting and merging after central enterprises enter, the stability of the organizational team will become the core guarantee for later operations. On the other hand, the management improvement of the core scenic spots of Wuzhen and Gubei Water Town.
Risk warning: Competition in the industry is intensifying, transportation costs are rising, and the recovery of surrounding tourism is slow.