Introduction to this report:
The company's domestic and overseas markets are expanding at an accelerated pace, the volume of 3D surgery is growing rapidly, innovative treatment plans are progressing steadily clinically, and maintaining an increase in holdings rating.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings rating. In line with the changing trend of the company's expenses, the 2024-2025 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.05/0.15 yuan (originally 0.09/0.21 yuan), and the 2026 EPS forecast was added to 0.32 yuan. Refer to the comparable company that gave the 2025 target PS 20X, maintain the target price of 28.91 yuan, and maintain the shareholding increase rating.
The performance was in line with expectations. For the full year of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 329 million yuan (+26.5% YoY), net profit of 5.69 million yuan, net loss of 35 million yuan after deduction, and 2023Q4 revenue of 93 million yuan (+36.1% YoY). The revenue side achieved rapid growth, which was in line with expectations. The gross margin for the whole year fell 5.60pp to 63.51% year-on-year due to the impact of the reduction in collection prices combined with changes in product structure. It is expected that as new product production and sales increase and scale effects become apparent, gross margin is expected to pick up, and the company is expected to gradually achieve stable profits.
Domestic and overseas markets are expanding at an accelerated pace, and the volume of 3D surgeries is growing rapidly. With the collection being implemented one after another, the admission and use of 3D catheters in hospitals progressed rapidly. The number of 3D surgeries increased by more than 50% throughout the year, with a cumulative total of more than 50,000 cases. Among them, since the first domestically produced pressure catheter went on sale, more than 1,000 surgeries have been completed, and the domestic replacement process for atrial fibrillation has officially started. Overseas markets have also been developed at an accelerated pace, covering a total of 35 countries and regions. As key products have been certified overseas, popularity has continued to rise through international academic conferences, overseas clinical usage has grown rapidly, and overseas revenue is 69 million yuan (+59.5%) in 2023.
The frozen balloon was successfully connected to the net, and the innovative treatment plan progressed steadily clinically. The company's first domestically produced atrial fibrillation cryoablation system was approved in August 2023. It has been connected to the Internet in more than 20 provinces, and is expected to gradually contribute to sales revenue. Through self-development and the joint venture Shangyang Medical's two path layout PFA fusion, it is expected that a “radiofrequency+freezing+pulse” full energy layout will be achieved, providing a more complete diagnosis and treatment plan. The clinical trial of the RDN ablation system is also progressing steadily, and is expected to be proven in 2025, entering the broad market for interventional treatment of hypertension.
Risk warning: The increase in the number of surgeries falls short of expectations, and the progress of product development falls short of expectations