① The lithium battery sector of Hong Kong stocks had the highest decline. What are the benefits to suppress the short-term market? ② Agencies say lithium prices will still be difficult to break through upward in the short term. What risks will the industrial chain game cause?
Financial Services Association, April 5 (Editor: Feng Yi) The lithium battery sector of Hong Kong stocks fell collectively today, leading the market in terms of decline. As of press release, the two major industry leaders, Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK) and Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK), both fell by more than 6%, China Airlines (03931.HK) fell by more than 4%, and Tianneng Electric (00819.HK) and BYD Electronics (00285.HK) both followed suit.
According to the news, recently, many lithium battery companies have successively disclosed their annual reports. The net profit of the two major lithium industry leaders has declined by about 70%, causing market expectations to weaken.
According to financial data, Tianqi Lithium achieved revenue of 40.503 billion yuan in 2023, a slight increase of 0.13% year on year; net profit to mother was 7.297 billion yuan, down 69.75% year on year. Ganfeng Lithium's revenue in 2023 was 32.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%, and net profit to mother was 4.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75.9%.
On the other hand, the current domestic lithium carbonate market game continues. Lithium carbonate futures prices are hovering at a low level, and industry clean-up has also become an important influencing factor in suppressing the lithium battery sector market.
According to HSBC's research report, the agency expects lithium prices to remain at current levels in the first half of this year due to the current oversupply of raw materials, unless the industry cuts production further or demand for downstream replenishment becomes more positive.
Hongyuan Futures analyst Wang Wenhu also said in last week's report that current demand is not strong enough, making downstream resistant to high prices, making it difficult for lithium carbonate prices to break through upward.
It is worth noting that insufficient production and sales on the consumer side of new energy sources in the short term may also weaken the impetus for lithium carbonate price increases.
According to monitoring by the Guoxin Securities Power Equipment Renewable Energy Team, in February 2024, the domestic power battery load volume was 18.0 GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a year-on-month decrease of 44%; of these, lithium iron phosphate batteries were loaded at 11.0 GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 28% and a month-on-month decrease of 44%.