US stock outlook | The number of initial jobless claims in the US rose to a new high since the end of January, and the three major indices are rising in a straight line

Futu News · Apr 4 21:01

全球宏观

美国初请失业金人数升至1月底来新高，三大期指直线拉升

美国至3月30日当周初请失业金人数22.1万人，升至1月份以来的最高水平，与近期裁员人数上升的趋势一致，预测中值为21.4万人，前值21万人，续请失业救济人数减少至179万人。美股三大指数期货直线拉升。

美联储官员今夜密集登场

今夜，多位美联储官员将密集登场讲话，北京时间22点，2026年FOMC票委、费城联储主席哈克参与一场炉边谈话；凌晨00:15，2024年FOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金就经济前景发表讲话；00:45，2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比参加一场问答；凌晨2点，2024年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特、2026年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利就美国经济发表讲话。

美联储主席鲍威尔：在对降通胀信心增强之前不打算降息

美联储主席鲍威尔表示，最近的数据没有实质性改变整体情况；在对降通胀信心增强之前不打算降息；美联储有时间让将发布的经济数据来指导决策；美联储正逐次会议地决定FOMC的货币政策；风险仍然朝着更加平衡的状态靠拢；美联储尚未完成“持续地重塑2%通胀”这一目标。

美财政部部长耶伦抵达广州

2024年4月4日下午，美财政部部长耶伦抵达广州，财政部副部长廖岷与耶伦握手。

美银警告：美股短期或回调高达12%

今年迄今，美国股市一路飙升，一季度涨幅达到约10%，成为有记录以来第14高的季度回报率。但美国银行技术策略师史蒂芬·萨特迈尔在周二的一份报告中表示，考虑到2024年是总统选举年，美股可能会在未来两个月内暂停上涨，然后在夏季迎来牛市反弹。萨特迈尔强调，从历史上看，在美国大选年中，4月和5月通常是股市表现疲软的月份。

美国裁员人数创去年1月以来的最高水平

美国3月挑战者企业裁员人报告显示，美国雇主3月份宣布裁员90,309人，较2月份的裁员84,638人增加7%，与去年同期的裁员89,703人基本持平，为自2023年1月裁员102,943人以来的最高单月总数。今年第一季度，美国公司宣布计划裁员257,254人，比去年同期的270,416人减少了5%。与2023年最后一个季度的117,163人相比，这一数字增长了120%。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前普涨

金价隔夜首次突破2300美元，美股黄金股盘前涨跌不一

金价隔夜一度上涨0.9%，至每盎司2,305.06美元，再创纪录新高，已持续数周的涨势仍在延续，截至发稿略有回调。中东和乌克兰局势持续紧张，强化了黄金作为避险资产的地位。此外，尽管利率上升，过去一年央行的买盘对金价维持历史高位起到了支撑作用。

寻找新增长来源，苹果公司据悉研究将家用机器人作为下一重大项目

据知情人士透露，$苹果 (AAPL.US)$的团队正在研究推进个人机器人技术，该领域可能成为该公司不断变化的“下个重大项目”之一。苹果的工程师在开发一种可以跟随用户在家中走动的移动机器人。苹果还开发了一种先进的桌面家用设备，利用机器人来将显示屏四处移动。尽管研发仍处于起步阶段，而且尚不清楚这些产品最终会发布，但苹果寻找新收入来源的压力越来越大。借助机器人技术，苹果可以在消费者家用设备领域获得更大立足点并利用人工智能的进步。但目前还不清楚会采取什么方法。知情人士透露，尽管机器人智能显示屏比移动机器人发展更快，但多年来在苹果的产品路线图中时有时无。

库克减持苹果股票套现约3300万美元

$苹果 (AAPL.US)$最新提交的一份监管文件显示，公司CEO蒂姆·库克本周出售了19.64万股股票，总价约3300万美元。其中，4月1日出售了9.92万股苹果股票，平均价格为每股170.03美元；4月2日出售了9.71万股，平均价格为每股168.62美元，并以每股169.30美元的价格额外卖出165股。

谷歌考虑对基于人工智能的搜索收费

$谷歌-C (GOOG.US)$考虑对基于人工智能的搜索收费，这对其商业模式来说是一次重大变革。谷歌正在考虑各种选择，包括将某些基于人工智能的搜索功能添加到其高级订阅服务中。 (英国金融时报)

特斯拉据称计划在印度寻找新厂，投资高达30亿美元

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$据称本月将在印度探索建设电动汽车工厂的地点，投资高达30亿美元，以推动印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪支持的印度本土制造计划。据两名直接了解特斯拉公司计划的知情人士透露，特斯拉本月将派出一个团队前往印度，寻找拟议中价值在20亿至30亿美元之间的电动汽车工厂。

黑莓盘前涨超5%，第四财季营收高于预期

$黑莓 (BB.US)$第四财季营收1.73亿美元，分析师预期1.542亿美元；第四财季物联网收入6,600万美元，分析师预期6,440万美元；第四财季经调整基本每股收益0.030美元，分析师预期每股亏损0.04美元；预计第一财季营收1.30亿美元至1.38亿美元，分析师预期1.534亿美元；预计第一财季物联网收入4,800万美元至5,200万美元，分析师预期5610万美元；第四财季负自由现金流1,700万美元。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前小幅上扬

台积电：晶圆厂设备复原率超八成新建晶圆厂预计今晚可完全复原

针对中国台湾花莲震后公司最新情况，$台积电 (TSM.US)$向《科创板日报》记者表示，公司今日晶圆厂设备的复原率已超过80%，新建的晶圆厂（如晶圆十八厂）预计在今晚可完全复原。虽然部分厂区的少数设备受损并影响部分产线生产，但主要机台包含所有EUV光刻机均无受损，而在处于震幅较大地区的部分生产线，预计需要较长的时间调整校正以恢复自动化生产。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

20:30 美国2月贸易帐、美国至3月30日当周初请失业金人数公布

22:00 2026年FOMC票委、费城联储主席哈克参与一场炉边谈话

次日

00:15 2024年FOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金就经济前景发表讲话

00:45 2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比参加一场问答

02:00 2024年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特就经济前景发表讲话。

02:00 2026年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利就美国经济发表讲话。

05:00 圣路易斯联储第一副主席奥尼尔佩斯在该行主办的2024年女性经济学研讨会上致欢迎辞。

07:20 圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆发表讲话。

07:30 美联储理事库格勒发表讲话。

编辑/lambor

Global macroscopic

The number of initial jobless claims in the US rose to a new high at the end of January, and the three major periods showed a sharp rise

The number of jobless claims in the US until the beginning of the week of March 30 was 221,000, rising to the highest level since January. In line with the recent upward trend in layoffs, the median forecast was 214,000, the previous value was 210,000, and the number of renewed jobless claims dropped to 1.79 million. Futures on the three major US stock indices pulled up in a straight line.

Federal Reserve Officials Are Coming Tonight

Tonight, a number of Federal Reserve officials will be speaking intensively. At 22:00 Beijing time, 2026 FOMC Voting Committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Huck participated in a fireside conversation; at 00:15 a.m., 2024 FOMC and Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin delivered a speech on economic prospects; at 00:45, 2025 FOMC and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby; at 2 a.m., 2024 FOMC Voting Committee, Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester, 2026 FOMC Voting Committee, and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kashkari on America The economy delivered a speech.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: We do not plan to cut interest rates until confidence in reducing inflation increases

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that recent data has not substantially changed the overall situation; there is no plan to cut interest rates until confidence in reducing inflation increases; the Fed has time to let the economic data to be released to guide decisions; the Federal Reserve is deciding the FOMC's monetary policy meeting by meeting; the risk is still moving closer to a more balanced state; and the Federal Reserve has yet to achieve the goal of “continuously reshaping 2% inflation.”

US Treasury Secretary Yellen arrives in Guangzhou

On the afternoon of April 4, 2024, US Treasury Secretary Yellen arrived in Guangzhou. Vice Secretary of the Treasury Liao Min shook hands with Yellen.

Bank of America warns: US stocks may recover as much as 12% in the short term

So far this year, the US stock market has soared, rising by about 10% in the first quarter, making it the 14th highest quarterly return on record. However, Bank of America technology strategist Steven Sattmeier said in a report on Tuesday that considering 2024 is a presidential election year, US stocks may stop rising for the next two months and then experience a bull market rebound in the summer. Sattmeier stressed that historically, during the US election year, April and May were usually weak months for the stock market.

The number of US layoffs hit the highest level since January last year

According to the March US Challenger Company layoffs report, US employers announced 90,309 layoffs in March, an increase of 7% from 84,638 layoffs in February, which is basically the same as 89,703 layoffs in the same period last year. This is the highest monthly total since 102,943 layoffs in January 2023. In the first quarter of this year, US companies announced plans to lay off 257,254 employees, a 5% reduction from 270,416 in the same period last year. This is an increase of 120% compared to 117,163 people in the last quarter of 2023.

Hot news

Star Technology's stock generally rose before the market

The price of gold broke through 2,300 US dollars for the first time overnight. US gold stocks had mixed ups and downs before the market

The price of gold rose 0.9% overnight to a record high of 2,305.06 US dollars per ounce. The increase that has continued for several weeks has continued, and there has been a slight correction as of press time. Continued tension in the Middle East and Ukraine has strengthened gold's position as a safe haven asset. Furthermore, despite rising interest rates, the central bank's purchases over the past year have played a supporting role in maintaining historically high gold prices.

Looking for new sources of growth, Apple is reportedly studying household robots as the next major project

According to people familiar with the matter,$Apple (AAPL.US)$The team is studying and advancing personal robotics, and this field may become one of the company's ever-changing “next major projects.” Apple engineers are developing a mobile robot that can follow users as they move around the home. Apple has also developed an advanced desktop home device that uses robots to move the display around. Although R&D is still in its infancy, and it's unclear whether these products will eventually be released, the pressure on Apple to find new revenue streams is increasing. With robotics, Apple can gain a greater foothold in consumer household devices and take advantage of advances in artificial intelligence. However, it is currently unclear what approach will be taken. People familiar with the matter revealed that although robotic smart displays are developing faster than mobile robots, they have been part of Apple's product roadmap over the years.

Cook reduced his Apple stock holdings and cashed out about $33 million

$Apple (AAPL.US)$According to a newly submitted regulatory document, the company's CEO Tim Cook sold 196,400 shares this week, for a total price of about $33 million. Among them, 99,200 Apple shares were sold on April 1, with an average price of 170.03 US dollars per share; on April 2, 971,000 shares were sold at an average price of 168.62 US dollars per share, and an additional 165 shares were sold at a price of 169.30 US dollars per share.

Google is considering charging for AI-based searches

$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$Considering charging for AI-based searches is a major change in their business model. Google is considering various options, including adding some AI-based search functionality to its premium subscription service. (British Financial Times)

Tesla allegedly plans to find a new factory in India, investing up to $3 billion

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$It is said that this month they will explore a site to build an electric vehicle factory in India, with an investment of up to 3 billion US dollars to promote India's local manufacturing plan supported by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Tesla will send a team to India this month to find a proposed electric vehicle factory worth between 2 billion and 3 billion US dollars, according to two people familiar with Tesla's plans.

Blackberry rose more than 5% before the market, and revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter was higher than expected

$BlackBerry (BB.US)$Fiscal fourth quarter revenue of US$173 million, analysts' expectations of US$154.2 million; FY4 quarter IoT revenue of US$66 million, analysts' expectations of US$64.4 million; adjusted basic earnings per share of US$0.030 million and analysts' expected loss of US$0.04 per share; projected revenue of US$130 million to US$138 million, analysts expected US$153.4 million; expected IoT revenue of US$48 million to US$52 million for the first fiscal quarter, analysts expected US$56.1 million; negative free cash flow for the fourth fiscal quarter $17 million.

Focus on China Securities

Popular Chinese securities rose slightly before the market

TSMC: The recovery rate of fab equipment exceeds 80%, and the newly built fab is expected to be fully restored tonight

In response to the latest situation of the company after the earthquake in Hualien, Taiwan,$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$I told the “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” reporter that the recovery rate of the company's fab equipment today has exceeded 80%, and the newly built fab (such as the 18th Wafer Factory) is expected to be fully restored tonight. Although a small amount of equipment in some factories was damaged and affected production on some production lines, the main machines, including all EUV lithographers, were not damaged, and some production lines in areas with large shock levels are expected to take a long time to adjust and correct to resume automated production.

Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

20:30 US trade balance for February and US unemployment claims announced at the beginning of the week ending March 30

22:00 2026 FOMC Voting Committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Huck participated in a fireside conversation

The next day

00:15 2024 FOMC voting committee and Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin delivered a speech on the economic outlook

00:45 2025 FOMC and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby participated in a Q&A session

02:00 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meester delivered a speech on the economic outlook.

02:00 2026 FOMC voting committee and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari delivered a speech on the US economy.

05:00 St. Louis Federal Reserve First Vice Chairman O'Neal Pace delivered a welcome speech at the 2024 Women's Economics Symposium hosted by the bank.

07:20 St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Mussalem delivered a speech.

07:30 Federal Reserve Governor Kugler delivered a speech.

edit/lambor

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美股前瞻 | 美国初请失业金人数升至1月底来新高，三大期指直线拉升