[Event] Zhongyuan Securities announced its 2023 annual results: in 2023, the company achieved operating income of 1.97 billion yuan, +4.6% year over year; net profit to mother was 210 million yuan, +98.5% year over year; corresponding EPS 0.05 yuan, ROE 1.5%.
The fourth quarter achieved revenue of 490 million yuan, +13.3% YoY and +13.8% YoY. Net profit to mother was 3.78 million yuan, -11.4% year-on-year and -90.7% month-on-month.
The brokerage business declined slightly, and digital empowerment was actively promoted. The average daily share base transaction volume of the entire market in 2023 was 962.5 billion yuan, -4.0% year-on-year, with a balance of 1650.9 billion yuan, +7% compared to the beginning of the year. In this context, the company's brokerage business revenue was 530 million yuan, or -15.8%, accounting for 27.0% of revenue, of which revenue from consignment financial products was 0.15 billion yuan, -32.3% year-on-year, accounting for 2.9% of brokerage business revenue; the company's balance of two loans was 7.4 billion yuan, +9% compared to the beginning of the year, 0.45% market share, and 0.01 pct year on year. The digital operation capabilities of the company's wealth management business continue to increase, and the average number of monthly active users of the Caishengbao App has stabilized at over one million. The company is ranked 24th in the brokerage industry in the overall ranking of the four major Internet operating indicators, including DAU and MAU.
The equity business is under pressure, but its dominant position remains stable. In 2023, the company's investment banking business revenue was 90 million yuan, -65.7% year-on-year. The share business underwriting scale was -54.9% year-on-year, and the bond business underwriting scale was +18.8% year-on-year. Shareholders' underwriting scale was 1.94 billion yuan, ranking 56th; of these, 1 was an IPO, raising 400 million yuan; and 3 refinancing companies, with an underwriting scale of 1.5 billion yuan. The principal underwriting scale of bonds was 5.9 billion yuan, ranking 74th; among them, the underwriting scale of corporate bonds, financial bonds, and corporate bonds was 4.1 billion yuan, 1.4 billion yuan, and 400 million yuan respectively. There are 3 IPO reserve projects, ranking 35th, including 1 on the main board of the two markets and 2 on the Beijing Stock Exchange.
Revenue from the asset management business rose against the market, and the scale of management declined slightly. In 2023, the company's asset management business revenue was 50 million yuan, +4.0% year-on-year. The asset management scale was 3.7 billion yuan, -4.3% year-on-year, including 1 large pooled currency pooled asset management plan with a management scale of 2,090 billion yuan; 6 pooled asset management plans with a management scale of 1,537 billion yuan; and 1 single asset management plan with a management scale of 36 million yuan.
Proprietary performance was excellent, and the size of equity assets increased dramatically. For the full year of 2023, the company's investment income (including fair value) was 80 billion yuan, +48.8% year on year, and proprietary assets were 25.8 billion yuan, +13.9% year over year, including equity assets of 700 million yuan, +98.9% year on year; investment income for the fourth quarter (including fair value) was 150 million yuan, +29.3% year over year.
Investment advice: We expect the company's EPS to be 0.05/0.06/0.07 yuan in 2024-26E, and the BVPS will be 3.06/3.13/3.21 yuan respectively. We gave it 1.2-1.3xp/B in 2023, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 3.67-3.98 yuan, maintaining a “neutral” rating.
Risk warning: Trading volume continues to decline, and investment returns continue to decline due to increased equity market fluctuations.