The revenue growth rate increased compared to the previous three quarters. CCB's revenue in 2023 was -1.79% year-on-year, and net profit to mother +2.30% year-on-year. Operating revenue improved from 23Q1-3 under a low year-on-year growth rate.
Asset quality is improving steadily. The non-performing loan ratio remained flat at 1.37% month-on-month. Among them, the non-performing ratio in the real estate industry increased compared to 23Q2. The overdue rate and attention rate all declined compared to 23Q2. The provision coverage rate was -3.5pct to 239.85% month-on-month, maintaining a comparable industry-leading level.
Core assets and high-quality liabilities continue to grow. Total assets were +10.76% compared to the end of the previous year, and core assets maintained reasonable growth. Net loans and advances were +12.64% compared to the end of the previous year, accounting for 1.00pct of total assets, up 1.00pct from the previous year, bond investment +13.02% compared to the end of the previous year, and the share of total assets increased 0.49pct from the end of the previous year.
High-quality debt continued to expand, and deposits were +10.52% compared to the end of the previous year. The company maintains a superior level of net interest yield in the industry by optimizing the balance and liability structure, strengthening comprehensive and differentiated pricing management, and expanding low-cost capital.
Investment advice. We forecast EPS of 1.33, 1.4, and 1.47 yuan in 2024-2026, and net profit growth rates of 1.65%, 5.13%, and 5.16%. We obtained a reasonable value of 8.08 yuan based on the DDM model (see Table 2); according to the PB-ROE model, the 2024E PB valuation was 0.65 times (0.54 times that of a comparable company), and the corresponding reasonable value was 8.28 yuan. Therefore, the reasonable value range is 8.08-8.28 yuan (corresponding to 2024 PE is 6.07-6.21 times, corresponding PE is 5.44 times that of the same company), maintaining the “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: The solvency of enterprises has declined, asset quality has deteriorated dramatically; financial supervision policies have undergone major changes.