美股前瞻 | 3月小非农大超预期,三大期指小幅下跌,市场静待鲍威尔今夜讲话

US stock outlook | In March, Xiaofei Farmers surpassed expectations, and the three major indices fell slightly. The market is waiting for Powell's speech tonight

Futu News ·  Apr 3 20:18

Global macroscopic

  • In March, Xiaofei Agricultural University surpassed expectations, and the three major indices fell slightly

The number of ADP employees in the US recorded an increase of 184,000 in March, the biggest increase since July 2023. It is expected to be 148,000, compared to the previous value of 140,000. As of press release, the three major indices have declined slightly.

At 00:10 Beijing time on April 4, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the 2024 Business, Government, and Society Forum hosted by Stanford Business School.

  • Interest rates are expected to be cut less than 3 times this year! Investors are now more cautious than the Federal Reserve

After a series of strong economic data was released, US investors declined further in their bets on interest rate cuts this year, and were more cautious than expected by the Federal Reserve. According to media reports, the swap market on Tuesday only absorbed expectations of 68 basis points of interest rate cuts this year. The number of interest rate cuts was less than three times, lower than the 75 basis point forecast by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, investors also slightly lowered their expectations for when to cut interest rates for the first time, believing that the possibility of cutting interest rates in June is only 63%.

  • The market is ignoring changes in expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts. J.P. Morgan warns: Beware of a correction in US stocks!

J.P. Morgan pointed out that the S&P 500 index has soared by nearly 30% since its low in October last year. This is largely due to the fact that the market once anticipated that the Fed would cut interest rates in March this year, but now the time the market expects to cut interest rates has been greatly delayed. The bank said that the stock market is ignoring a recent change in interest rate cut expectations, which may be a mistake. Corporate profits need to grow at an accelerated pace to fill this gap (the gap between the continued rise in US stocks and the cooling of expectations of interest rate cuts).

Federal Funds Rate Futures and the S&P 500 Index
  • Shorting US debt! US Treasury yields return to 2024 highs

Recently, a series of strong economic growth data has taken a 180-degree turn in Wall Street's optimistic expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Traders are shorting US bonds, causing the benchmark US bond yield to return to the highest point since 2024. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.386% on Tuesday morning, surpassing the annual high of 4.352% set in February, setting a new record since this year.

  • Specializing in Bitcoin Volatility! Bitcoin leverage and shorting ETFs are here

The crypto asset bull market driven by the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs is still not over, and Wall Street has introduced leveraged and shorting ETF products, once again igniting the enthusiasm of the market. ProShares, a well-known financial product issuer, launched the Ultra Bitcoin ETF (BITU) and ProShares UltraShort Bitcoin ETF (SBIT) on Tuesday. The former aims to track the 2x daily earnings performance of the Bloomberg Bitcoin Index, while the latter tracks the index's decline. The annual fee for the two ETFs is 0.95%.

  • Was Biden dumbfounded by the rise in oil prices? The US Department of Energy urgently halts the SPR recovery plan

Since last week, crude oil prices have rebounded. The US benchmark WTI crude oil broke through 85 US dollars/barrel for the first time since October last year. Brent crude also hit a new high since October last year, and once stood above 89 US dollars. The Biden administration made an urgent announcement that it will not continue with the latest plans to replenish strategic oil reserves (SPR). The US Department of Energy said it will only continue to make up SPR if market conditions permit.

Hot news

  • Star Technology stocks weakened slightly before the market

  • Tesla fell nearly 1% before the market, and delivery in the first quarter fell far short of expectations

Following yesterday's closing down 4.9%,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$It fell more than 1% in the pre-market today. According to the news, Tesla's first quarter deliveries fell far short of expectations. US investment bank Wedbush said that although we had anticipated that Q1 delivery would be bad (we didn't expect it to be this bad), this was a disaster that was difficult to explain.

  • Intel fell more than 4% before the market, and the loss of the foundry business rose sharply to 7 billion US dollars in 2023

$Intel (INTC.US)$It fell more than 4% before the market. According to the news, Intel announced on April 2 that the company's total revenue fell from 57 billion US dollars in 2022 to 47.7 billion US dollars in 2023. The foundry business had revenue of US$18.9 billion in 2023 and operating losses of US$7 billion. The revenue and loss of the business in 2022 were US$27.5 billion and US$5.2 billion, respectively.

  • TSMC fell nearly 1% before, suspending construction of a new plant in Taiwan

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$It fell close to 1% before the market. According to news, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake occurred in the waters off Hualien County in Taiwan this morning, and aftershocks continued thereafter. A TSMC spokesperson said that TSMC suspended construction of a new plant in Taiwan, China, and suspended some chip production facilities as a precautionary measure. Some analysts pointed out that there may be aftershocks in the near future, but in the long run, they should not have much impact on the industrial chain.

  • Disney's board battle comes to a grand finale tonight

On Wednesday afternoon EST, global entertainment giants$Disney (DIS.US)$A shareholders' meeting will be held, and Wall Street's high-profile “Aggressive Investors vs. Board of Directors” drama will soon come to an end. The key to this fight is the reelection of Disney's board of directors. As a well-known “radical investor” on Wall Street, Peltz joined the board to change the company internally. One reason Disney takes it so seriously is that more than 35% of the company's shares are held by individual investors, and the votes of these people could seriously affect the results.

Focus on China Securities

  • Popular Chinese securities stocks generally declined before the market

  • Baidu Code Assistant upgrade, completely free for individual developers

$Baidu (BIDU.US)$BaiduComate 2.0 was officially released and is completely free for individual developers. According to the introduction, the 2.0 version of Comate has been fully enhanced, and it can deeply interpret the private domain code base of enterprises and individuals. Not only are they proficient in more than 100 mainstream development languages, but they have even written a quarter of Baidu's internal code.

Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

(The following are all Beijing time)

20:15 US ADP employment numbers in March

20:30 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic was interviewed by CNBC

21.45 Federal Reserve Governor Bowman Speaks on “Bank Liquidity, Regulation, and the Federal Reserve's Role as Lender of Last resort”

22:00 US March ISM non-manufacturing PMI

22:30 US EIA crude oil inventory for the week from March 29th

The next day

00:00 2025 FOMC and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby delivered opening remarks at a virtual event hosted by the Chicago Federal Bank

00:10 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at the 2024 Business, Government, and Society Forum hosted by Stanford Business School

01:10 Federal Reserve Governor Barr Discusses Community Reinvestment Bill

04:30 Federal Reserve Governor Kugler delivers a speech on the US economic outlook and monetary policy


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