Event: 23 years of impressive results. The company achieved revenue of 1,775 billion yuan, +41% year over year; realized net profit of 472 million yuan, +74% year over year; realized net profit of 466 million yuan without return to mother, +71% year over year. Looking at a single quarter, Q4 achieved revenue of 547 million yuan, +29% year over year, and net profit to mother of 158 million yuan, +52% year over year. Performance continued to increase.
Product structure optimization+increase in the share of major customers promotes an increase in profit levels. 1) In terms of profitability, the company's gross profit margin in '23 was 40.72% (+6.46pct), net profit margin was 26.59% (+5.06pct); Q4 gross profit margin was 43.75%, +5 year over year.
49pct, +3.73pct month-on-month, net profit margin 28.93%, +4.30pct month-on-month, the increase in profitability was mainly due to ① the increase in sales share of high-value-added large-capacity thermos cups, driving a significant increase in average price. The company's thermos mug revenue in '23 was 1,688 billion yuan (+41% yoy). According to the estimated volume/price ratio, the gross margin was 40.89% (+6.88pct); ② the increase in sales share of major customers drove a significant increase in the scale effect on the largest company in '23. Customer PMI sales The amount reached 1,508 billion yuan (+75% yoy), accounting for 85% (+17pct). 2) In terms of cost ratio, the company's sales/management/finance/R&D expense rates in '23 were 1.6%/4.41%/-0.73%/3.77%, respectively, and -0.14pct/-0.07pct/+1.34pct, respectively. The increase in financial expenses was mainly due to the year-on-year decrease in exchange earnings. The increase in R&D expenses was mainly due to the company's increased R&D investment and equity incentives for R&D personnel. 3) In terms of cash flow, the net cash flow from the company's operating activities in '23 was $577 million, +118.19% year-on-year, thanks to the expansion of sales scale and timely sales repayment. 4) In terms of operating capacity, the company's inventory turnover days and accounts receivable turnover days in '23 were 55.67/28.87 days, respectively, compared to '22, -1.36 days/+3.12 days, respectively.
Vacuum cups continue to thrive, the company binds to major core customers, and there is still plenty of room for subsequent growth. Looking back, we think: 1) Stanley is still booming in the North American market. Amazon's Stanley Quencher series thermos mugs are still limited in purchase in North America, and sales are unabated. The thermos mugs have changed from durable consumer goods to fashion items, driving continued sales growth. 2) Stanley has plenty of room to expand in non-US markets. 3) The cup type that the company cooperates with Stanley is mainly Quencher, and it is not the only manufacturer, so there is still room to increase its share in the future. 4) The project with an annual output of 10 million thermos cups is expected to be put into operation in 24, and Vietnam's project with an annual output of 13.5 million thermos cups is expected to advance steadily, laying the foundation for subsequent growth.
Investment advice: Benefiting from the FMCG trend in the US, the company is full of orders; in the future, the commissioning of a new factory in Vietnam will ease the bottleneck of tight production capacity and drive further revenue growth. According to the 24-25 profit forecast of the company's 23-year performance and production schedule, net profit due to mother is estimated to be 592, 7.37 million yuan, and 888 million yuan for 24-26, respectively (values before 24-25 were 520 million yuan and 597 million yuan), corresponding to PE of 13, 11, and 9, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations; risk of market competition increasing risk; risk of raw material price fluctuations; risk of production capacity construction progress falling short of expectations