Key points of investment
Key points of the announcement: In March 2024, Ideal Auto delivered 28,984 new vehicles, +39.19% over the same period. 80,400 vehicles were delivered in the first quarter, with a cumulative delivery volume of 713,764 vehicles since delivery.
Delivery in March increased year over year, and new cars continued to explode. In March, Ideal Auto delivered 28,984 new vehicles, +39.19% year over year. As of March 31, 2024, Ideal Auto has 474 retail centers across the country, down 1 month over month, covering 142 cities, 356 after-sales maintenance centers and authorized sheet spray centers, covering 209 cities, with a perfect channel network layout; in March, Ideal Retail Center's single store efficiency was 62 units/home, +6.45% month-on-month; in terms of new cars, the large MPV model Ideal MEGA began nationwide delivery, selling at a price of 559,800 yuan, and the delivery volume broke 1,000 in the first week; the 2024 L series was officially upgraded. /8 The model series was changed, and the configuration guide price for each model remained the same after the adjustment. Among them, the 2024 L7/8 Air, equipped with a “CDC sports suspension”, will be launched and delivered in May this year, at a price of 30.18/32.18 million yuan, respectively; the 2024 L Series first-sale benefits have been adjusted.
Sales of the 2024 L Series+MEGA exceeded expectations, the OTA 5.1 version was upgraded, and smart driving capabilities continued to evolve. In March, the OTA5.1 version was upgraded, and AD Max AEB collision avoidance performance was improved, side vehicle avoidance capabilities were added, blind spot warning was optimized, round-the-island traffic, high-speed NOA trucks avoidance capability, and safety was improved. In terms of overcharging, as of March 31, 2024, the ideal country has 357 overcharging stations, achieving full connectivity of core cities in different economic belts, and continuous improvement in construction, laying a solid foundation for increasing the range and subsequent increase in market acceptance of pure electric models. Looking ahead to 2024, the launch of Ideal Overcharge+Smart Driving continues to accelerate, focusing more on user value. The Ideal L6 and 3 new pure electric models will be launched in the range extension field, further enriching the ideal new energy product matrix. With features such as large space, smart driving, and high safety and comfort, sales are expected to increase rapidly. In terms of new markets, Ideal Company expects to initially launch products in overseas markets in 2024H2, lay out high-end domestic markets while opening up overseas markets, and opening up medium- to long-term growth space.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We maintain Ideal Auto's profit forecast for 2023-2025, with revenue of 1238.52/1906.49/312.707 billion yuan, +173% +54%/64%, respectively, and net profit to mother of 117/143/24.9 billion yuan, +679%/+23%/74%, respectively. The corresponding PE valuation was 22/18/10 times, respectively, maintaining the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: New car sales fall short of expectations, and the industry's price war has exceeded expectations.