The company is a TopCon battery leader, fully benefiting from the advent of the N-type era. In 2024, the penetration rate of N-type batteries increased rapidly. In terms of production capacity, the production capacity of N-type TopCon batteries was about 500 GW at the end of 23. Facing the global demand for nearly 500 GW of photovoltaic installations in 24, there was no oversupply of advanced TopCon battery production capacity. As a leading TopCon battery company, the company's N-type production capacity has reached 40GW by the end of '23, shipments will increase dramatically in '24, and the company's profitability will be marginally restored.
The P-type production capacity impairment was fully calculated, and it went into battle lightly. The profitability of Q4 PERC batteries continued to decline in '23, and the company prepared 894 million yuan for depreciation of assets related to P-type PERC batteries. After the old equipment assets were cleared, the company's lightweight production capacity structure was further optimized.
Deeply involved in the field of batteries, the forward-looking layout of N-type technology. As the “N-type battery leader”, the company launched the “MonO1” series of products to the world. Relying on cutting-edge technologies such as the LPCVD technology route, LP double insertion process, J-Rpoly, neon poly, and J-STF ultra-dense fine grids, the mass production efficiency of TopCon batteries was increased from about 25% at the beginning of 2023 to 26% by the end of the year.
The global layout is accelerating, and going overseas increases profitability. The company targets overseas markets and continues to explore emerging markets such as Europe, Australia, North America and Latin America on the basis of the original international markets such as India and Turkey. In 2023, the company's share of overseas sales increased from 0.29% to about 4.69%, and the target is to increase the share of overseas revenue to more than 10% in 2024. At the same time, the company is planning a Hong Kong stock listing to establish an overseas capital operation platform to promote the company's business development.
Covered for the first time, the company was given an “increase in weight” rating. We expect the company's net profit for 24-26 to be 10.61, 14.09, and 1,788 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 14 times PE in 24 years. We gave the company an average valuation of 16 times PE in the 24-year industry, covering it for the first time, and giving the company an “increase in wealth” rating.
Risk warning: TopCon technology development falls short of expectations, demand for photovoltaic terminals falls short of expectations, and industry competition intensifies.