全年经调整净利润实现扭亏为盈，奈雪的茶单店模型持续优化2023 年，公司实现营业收入51.64 亿元，同比增长20.33%；全年经调整净利润为0.21 亿元，较前一年实现扭亏为盈。分业务线看，现制茶饮业务全年实现收入37.77 亿，同比增长20.46%，收入占比73.1%，烘焙产品/瓶装饮料/ 其他业务分别实现营收7.08/2.67/4.13 亿元， 占比营收13.7%/5.2%/8.0%。2023 年，奈雪的茶订单均价、单门店日均订单量分别为29.6 元、344.3 单。分渠道看，直营门店点单/自提/外卖订单占比分别为14.5%/43.6%/41.9%，同比-4.6/+9.0/-4.4pct。从奈雪的茶茶饮店单店模型看， 原材料/ 员工/ 租金/ 外卖费用成本占收入比重为别为39.3%/20.3%/14.5%/8.2%，同比-0.4/-3.2/-1.0/-0.4pct，成本管理成效显著，单店模型持续优化，门店盈利能力有望进一步提升。Incidents:
The company announced its full year 2023 results.
Comment:
The adjusted net profit for the whole year turned a loss into a profit. In 2023, Nai Xue's tea shop model continued to be optimized. The company achieved operating income of 5.164 billion yuan, an increase of 20.33% over the previous year; adjusted net profit for the whole year was 21 million yuan, turning a loss into a profit over the previous year. By business line, the ready-made tea business achieved annual revenue of 3.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.46%, accounting for 73.1% of revenue. The bakery products/bottled drinks/ other businesses achieved revenue of 708/2.67/ 413 million yuan respectively, accounting for 13.7%/5.2%/8.0% of revenue. In 2023, the average price of Nai Xue's tea orders and the average daily order volume of a single store were 29.6 yuan and 344.3 orders, respectively. Looking at each channel, direct-run stores accounted for 14.5%/43.6%/41.9% of orders, respectively, -4.6/+9.0/ -4.4pct. Judging from Nai Xue's single-store model for tea and tea shops, raw materials/employees/rental/ takeout expenses accounted for 39.3%/20.3%/14.5%/8.2% of revenue, compared to -0.4/-3.2/-1.0/-0.4pct. The cost management results are remarkable. The single-store model continues to be optimized, and the profitability of the store is expected to further improve.
The operating profit margin of Nai Xue's tea store improved. By the end of 2023, the total number of Nai Xue's tea stores had reached 1,655, including 1,574 directly-managed stores, a net increase of 506 over last year. Nai Xue's tea insists on expanding the tea shop network in high-tier cities. The number of directly-managed stores in first-tier, first-tier, second-tier, and other cities was 542/552/328/152, respectively, accounting for 34%/35%/21%/10%, respectively. Among them, the number of first-class and second-class tea shops was 1230/344 respectively, accounting for 78%/22% respectively. In terms of store performance, Nai Xue's direct-run tea stores achieved operating profit of 829 million yuan, an increase of 76.34% over the previous year, and a store operating margin of 17.7%, up 5.90 pcts from 2022. The average daily sales volume of Class I and Class II tea stores was 111.85 million yuan, respectively, and the operating profit margin of the store was 18.3%/20.4%, respectively. In July 2023, the company announced the official launch of the franchise business. By the end of February 2024, about 200 franchise stores had opened. Nai Xue's first overseas store will also open in Thailand at the end of 2023. The opening of franchise stores and overseas stores will further open up Nai Xue's tea store space.
Investment advice and profit forecasting
Continuous optimization of the company's single-store model drives profitability restoration, and opening up franchises boosts the store development process. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 64.01/72.57/8.160 billion yuan, and net profit to mother will be 1.73/26/352 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 26x/17x/13x, respectively, maintaining the “increase” rating.
(The benchmark for the Hong Kong stock market is the Hang Seng Index).
Risk warning
Food safety issues, store expansion falling short of expectations, operating efficiency falling short of expectations, macroeconomic impact, risk of repeated epidemics, etc.