Core views:
The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of $50.457 billion, +8.7% year on year; net profit to mother of 1,331 billion yuan, or -44.2% year on year; of these, Q4 achieved revenue of 21.138 billion yuan, +4.3% year over year; and net profit to mother of 70 million yuan, +277.6% year over year.
The share of large fans continues to rise, ranking first in the fan market share. In 2023, the unit's external sales capacity was 13.77GW, the same as the previous year. Among them, 4MW (inclusive) -6MW units accounted for more than 50% of sales, 6MW and above units had a year-on-year sales capacity of +29.36%, and the proportion of high-power models continued to increase. According to BNEF statistics quoted in the annual report, in 2023, the company added 15.67 GW of installed domestic wind power, accounting for 20% of the domestic market share, ranking first in the country for 13 consecutive years; the world added 16.4 GW of installed capacity and 13.90% of the global market share, ranking first in the world.
The company's on-hand orders are growing steadily. By the end of 2023, the total number of external orders pending execution was 20.71 GW; the company's external unsigned orders were 9,075.21 MW, including 3,895.54 MW for 4MW (inclusive) -6MW units and 5,179.67 MW for 6MW and above; the company had a total of 29.78 GW of external orders, of which the overseas orders were 4,677.47 MW; in addition, the company also had 617.40 MW of internal orders. The company's on-hand orders totaled 30,401.12MW, +12.13% year over year. The company has plenty of orders in hand, providing strong support for subsequent performance growth.
The scale of wind farms has increased rapidly, and it has become an important profit growth point for the company. The company's wind power project achieved power generation revenue of 6.431 billion yuan, and investment income from the transfer of shares in the wind farm project was 1,724 billion yuan, +54.07% over the same period last year. By the end of 2023, the total installed equity capacity of the company's domestic and foreign wind farms was 7,289 MW, and the domestic and foreign wind power projects added 1,793 MW of grid-connected installed capacity.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's 24-26 EPS is expected to be 0.57/0.69/0.77 yuan/share, respectively, and 15 times PE over 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 8.60 yuan/share for A shares, and a reasonable value of HK$3.41 per share for H shares with an AH premium. Maintain a “buy” rating for A/H shares.
Risk warning. Demand for wind power projects falls short of expectations; technology iteration falls short of expectations; power plant development and transfer falls short of expectations.