工程业务中，冶金工程/房建工程/市政工程分别实现营收1112.7、3433.5、1213.7 亿元，同比分别-8.2%、+16.6%、+9.5%，市政工程实现较快增长，三座在产矿山合计实现归属公司的净利润12.14 亿元，同时年产2 万吨粗铜的设计冶炼产能于24 年1 月投产，矿产资源对营收及利润的贡献有望提升。分区域来看，境内、境外业务分别实现营收6075.2、263.5 亿元，分别同比+6.7%、+14.5%。从订单角度来看，23 年公司新签合同14247.8亿元，同比+6%，其中新签海外合同634 亿元，同比+43.72%。24M1-2 新签合同1954.1 亿元，同比+0.4%，其中新签海外合同49.1 亿元，同比+3.2%，海外业务仍有望实现较快增长。Revenue achieved steady growth in '23, with profit being dragged down by impairment for a short time. The company achieved revenue of 633.87 billion yuan, +6.95% year over year, net profit attributable to mother was 8.67 billion yuan, -15.6% year over year, 7.55 billion yuan, -21.9% year-on-year, of which non-recurring profit and loss were $1.12 billion, an increase of 51 billion yuan over the same period last year. Profit pressure was mainly affected by impairment calculation. If measured according to the level of asset and credit impairment in '22, net profit to mother in '23 was +23.2% compared with the same period last year.
Q4 achieved revenue of 166.55 billion yuan in a single quarter, -14.9% year-on-year, and net profit to mother of 487 million yuan, -86.3% year-on-year.
The engineering contracting business is driving an increase in overall revenue. The overseas business is expected to achieve rapid growth by business segment. In 23, the engineering contracting/resource development/characteristic business/comprehensive real estate business achieved revenue of 5854.8, 68.2, 319.8, and 16.52 billion yuan, respectively, of +9.3%, -23.1%, +0.2%, and -27.3% year-on-year respectively.
In the engineering business, metallurgical engineering/housing engineering/municipal engineering achieved revenue of 1112.7 billion yuan, 3433.5 billion yuan, and 121.37 billion yuan respectively, and municipal engineering achieved rapid growth. The three active mines achieved a total net profit of 1,214 billion yuan belonging to the company. At the same time, the design and smelting capacity with an annual output of 20,000 tons of crude copper was put into operation in January 24. The contribution of mineral resources to revenue and profit is expected to increase. At a regional level, domestic and overseas businesses achieved revenue of 607.52 billion yuan and 26.35 billion yuan respectively, +6.7% and +14.5% compared with the same period last year. From an order perspective, the company signed 1424.78 billion yuan of new contracts in '23, +6% year-on-year, of which 63.4 billion yuan of new overseas contracts were signed, +43.72% over the same period last year. 24M1-2 signed a new contract of 195.41 billion yuan, +0.4% year over year, of which 4.91 billion yuan of new overseas contracts were signed, +3.2% year over year. Overseas business is still expected to grow rapidly.
Gross margin improved slightly, and impairment losses increased
The gross margin improved slightly. The gross margins of engineering contracting/resource development/characteristic business/comprehensive real estate business in '23 were 9.09%, 30.99%, 15.81%, and 7.89%, respectively, +0.25pct, -5.36pct, +2.09pct, and -3.11pct, respectively. Taken together, the annual gross margin was 9.7%, up 0.05 pct year on year, and project management efficiency improved. The cost ratio was basically the same. The sales, management, R&D, and finance cost ratios were 0.5%, 1.95%, 3.11%, and 0.16%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.01pct, +0.05pct, -0.05pct, and 0pct. Asset and credit impairment losses were 8.95 billion yuan, an increase of 3.99 billion over the same period last year, dragging down profit growth. The net profit margin for the whole year was 1.37%, down 0.37 pcts from the previous year. The net amount of CFO in '23 was 5.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of inflows of 12.26 billion yuan. The current payout ratios were 76.8% and 75.2%, respectively. The year-on-year changes were -11.2pct and -8.39pct, and the total asset turnover ratio was 1.02, a decrease of 0.03 times over the previous year.
Ongoing orders are sufficient, emphasis is placed on resources and emerging business value, and maintaining the “buy” rating company's global influence as a “metallurgical construction national team” is expected to continue to deepen. It is recommended that emphasis be placed on the company's resources and emerging business value. Considering the strong downward pressure on real estate and the uncertainty of metal price fluctuations, we lowered the company's profit forecast. It is expected to achieve net profit to the mother of 100, 111, and 12.3 billion yuan in 24-26 years (previous value of 139/161 billion yuan). The approval gave the company a 24-year 9 times PE corresponding target price of 4.36 yuan to maintain the “purchase” rating.
Risk warning: Infrastructure investment growth falls short of expectations, risk of large fluctuations in metal prices, demand for high nickel batteries falling short of expectations, risk of accidents in mining project operations, and geopolitical risks.
