Incidents:
On April 1, 2024, BYD released its March 2024 production and sales report. In March, sales of new energy vehicles were 320,000 units, +46.1% year over year, +147.3% month on month. The total sales volume of 2024Q1 new energy vehicles was 626,000 units, +13.4% year over year.
The share of 2024Q1 high-end models in sales increased year over month by brand. In March, Dynasty + Ocean sales volume was 287,000 units, +46.5% year over month, +151.4% month over month, Tension sales volume 1.0 units, -1.1% year over year, +123.6% month on month, looking forward to sales of 1,090 units, +39.7% month on month, Equation Leopard sold 3,550 units, and +53.7% month on month. The cumulative sales volume of 2024Q1 Dynasty+Ocean was 586,000 units, +11.9% YoY, -34.9% YoY, and Tension's cumulative sales volume was 24,000 units, -0.9% YoY and -32.1%.
Looking forward to the cumulative sales volume of 3,522 units, +76.0% month-on-month, and the cumulative sales volume of Fangchengbao was 11,000 units, +93.7% month-on-month. The 2024Q1 high-end model sales accounted for 6.2%, up 1.8 pct year on year, and 1.6 pct month-on-month. The increase in the share of high-end models is expected to help the company open up profit space.
The share of exports increased month-on-month, and overseas markets were developed at an accelerated pace
The company exported 38,000 new energy passenger vehicles in March, +188.7% year-on-year, +65.0% month-on-month. In 2024Q1, the cumulative total exports of NEVs were 98,000 units, +152.8% year-on-year, +0.7% month-on-month, accounting for 15.6% of export sales, +8.6pct year-on-year, and +5.3 pct month-on-month. In March, the company held press conferences in the United Arab Emirates, Greece, and Côte d'Ivoire and brought various models to the local market. The company showcased all brand models at the Bangkok International Auto Show and announced that BYD's Thailand base will be completed and put into production in 2024Q3. Products and production capacity are going overseas at an accelerated pace, and the expansion of the international market is expected to provide strong impetus for the company's sales growth.
Rapid model iteration opens up room for sales growth
The March Yuan Plus Honor Edition, Seagull Honor Edition, e2 Honor Edition, Frigate 07 Honor Edition, SEAL Honor Edition, 2024 D9, and Yuan UP were launched one after another. By continuing to launch more cost-effective models and adding DMI 5.0 to increase product strength, the company's sales volume is expected to grow further.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Technology drives new product cycles, and new energy leaders take off again. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 8130.62/9529.84/1162,640 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.99%/17.21%/22.00%, net profit to mother of 411.5/517.6/66.69 billion yuan respectively, year-on-year growth rates of 36.96%/25.80%/26.91%, EPS of 14.13/17.78/22.56 yuan/share, respectively, and 3-year CAGR of 29.79%, corresponding to PE 15.0/11.9/9.4 times; continuous attention is recommended.
Risk warning: vehicle delivery falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; risk of price increases for upstream raw materials