Incidents:
In March 2024, Ideal Auto delivered 28,984 new vehicles, an increase of 39.2% over the previous year. A total of 80,400 vehicles were delivered in the first quarter of 2024, an increase of 52.9% year over year.
Product launch and iteration completed to welcome the 2024 product year
In March 2024, Ideal Auto delivered a total of 29,000 new vehicles, up 39.2% year on year, and delivered 80,000 vehicles in 2024 Q1, up 52.9% year on year. Delivery data for the first quarter exceeded the upper limit after the delivery volume update on March 21. We expect the revenue of the Ideal 2024Q1 automobile sales business to be 25.5-26.5 billion yuan, a continuous increase over the previous year. On March 1, Ideal unveiled its new flagship all-electric MPV, the Mega, released the L Series 2024 model, and completed a rich range of configurations. It is expected that the new model Ideal L6 in the L series will be released in April 2024. The price is 25-300,000 yuan. The L6 product strength is expected to remain leading among B-class SUVs. The falling price band and the abundance of models are expected to complete the product matrix, and sales volume is expected to continue to be realized in 2024.
Intelligence has been fully upgraded, and smart cockpit driving both wings fly hand in hand
The intelligent vehicle side configuration has been upgraded again. In terms of intelligent driving, the Max and Ultra versions use dual Nvidia Orin-X, Pro, and Air versions. The full-scene intelligent driving NOA function is expected to be implemented nationwide, supporting functions such as autonomous lane change, ramps, traffic in response to traffic lights, entering and leaving the roundabout, and avoiding detour obstacles. In the smart cockpit, the 8295 chip is used to replace the 8155 chip. The computing power upgrade can complete instructions that are more suitable for larger models, and supports functions such as multi-mode communication and intelligent voice, and the Xmind-based AI Task Master and AI Entertainment Master accelerated applications.
Increase investment in supercharging and continue to build a 5C charging ecosystem
Ideal energy efficiency has been fully upgraded, and overcharging is expected to solve the range anxiety of pure electric models. On the car side, the Mega is equipped with a Kirin 5C battery pack jointly developed by Ningde Era. The total battery capacity of the battery pack is 102.7 kilowatt-hours, and the CLTC range is 710 km, and both energy density and charging speed have been upgraded. On the charging pile side, as of March 2024, Ideal Auto has built and put into use 357 ideal overcharging stations and 1,544 charging stations. The next plan is to invest 6 billion dollars to build an overcharging network. The plan is to build 5,000 ideal direct 5C overcharging stations, using charging stations in participating cities, and fully upgrade the ideal 5C overcharging ecosystem.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 1238.5/2084.4/317.36 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 174%/68%/52%, respectively, and net profit to mother of 118.3/161.4/27.18 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -/ 36.5%/68.4%, and EPS 5.57/7.61/12.81 yuan/share, respectively.
In 2024, the ideal automobile product matrix continues to improve, and the launch of models catalyzes a “product year”. The company is expected to maintain the lead in model product power, smart driving features, and overcharging technology. Continued attention is recommended.
Risk warning: Passenger car sales fall short of expectations; advances in intelligent functions fall short of expectations.