Incidents:
On April 1, 2024, Xiaopeng Motor announced the March delivery data. In March 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 9,026 new cars, up 99% month-on-month and 29% year-on-year.
Driven by X9 product power, model sales are expected to continue to rise
In March 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 9,026 new cars, up 99% month-on-month and 29% year-on-year.
The 2024Q1 Xiaopeng delivered a total of 22,000 units, an increase of 20% over the previous year. We expect corresponding automobile sales revenue of 600-6.5 billion yuan in 2024Q1. Delivery of the Xiaopeng X9 increased significantly, with a total of 3,946 units delivered in March, continuing to lead the pure electric MPV and three-row seat market. The increase in the share of high-margin models is expected to drive up the gross margin level. The Xiaopeng model product matrix continues to improve. On March 25, the Xiaopeng P7i 702 Max Peng Yi version was released. The price was 249,900 yuan. The product matrix price continued to drop, and the model's cost performance ratio increased steadily.
Intelligent driving functions are leading, and high-quality features are expected to drive model sales
Xiaopeng XNGP has been fully opened to users in 243 cities across the country, and the mass-produced version of the software covers the largest urban road network in the industry. On January 30, Xiaopeng Motor held a press conference to launch the Lunar New Year Smart Driving Campaign. In 2024, Xiaopeng XNGP will achieve point-to-point coverage (including hutongs, parking lots, and internal roads) throughout the country. On February 29, Xiaopeng Motor announced the promotion of unlimited XNGP intelligent assisted driving functions for users with smart driving experience. It can be used in any city, route, or country. In March, the monthly active penetration rate of XNGP smart driving users in urban areas reached 82%, and the scale of unlimited XNGP opening to smart driving experience users continued to expand.
Global strategy accelerates, intelligent leadership and cooperation accelerate entry into the market
In terms of intelligent driving, Xiaopeng Motor will develop high-speed NGP for overseas markets this year, and will launch XNGP research and development in 2025, becoming the world's leading smart driving company. In terms of global strategy, in February, Xiaopeng Motor and Volkswagen Group signed a strategic platform and software technology cooperation to accelerate global deployment. At the same time, a strategic partnership was established with the UAE distributor Ali&Sons Group, and it is expected that delivery of models to the five Middle Eastern and African countries will begin in 2024Q2.
Channel structure optimization and improved charging network are expected to bring new volume and continuous optimization of Xiaopeng's channel structure. The number of stores already opened in 2023Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 is 425/411/395/500, respectively, and dealers brought about by the “Jupiter Plan” have accelerated and optimized sales capacity steadily.
The charging network continues to improve. As of December 31, 2023, Xiaopeng had 1108 charging stations, including 902 self-operated overcharging stations and 206 destination charging stations, which fully alleviated mileage anxiety.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Due to increased market competition and an increase in the share of low-value models, we expect the company's sales volume to be 29/54/650,000 units in 24/25/26, respectively, and corresponding revenue of 767/1269/138.2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 150%/65%/9%, respectively. Net profit attributable to mother was -62/8/3.7 billion yuan, respectively. Continued attention is recommended.
Risk warning: The advancement of intelligent functions falls short of expectations; the impact of intelligence on vehicle sales is less than expected.