截至2023 年末，公司煤机装机45.6GW，燃机6.6GW。收入端，2023 年公司煤机利用小时同比提高374 小时至4599 小时，燃机利用小时同比提高91 小时至3039 小时，带动火电发电量同比增长6%至2266 亿千瓦时；火电电价同比略增。成本端，2023 年公司火电发电单位燃料成本同比下降27.21 元/兆瓦时，叠加电量增长影响，公司电力燃料费同比下降2.25%至665.53 亿元。综合来看，公司2023 年煤机（含热）实现利润总额-1.33 亿元，亏损额大幅收窄；燃机（含热）实现利润总额3.92 亿元，扭亏为盈。Event: The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 122.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4.77% over the previous year, and achieved net profit of 1,365 billion yuan to mother, an increase of 435% over the previous year.
Comment:
Thermal power: Pressure on fuel costs has weakened, and profitability has improved dramatically
By the end of 2023, the company had installed 45.6 GW of coal engines and 6.6 GW of combustion engines. On the revenue side, in 2023, the number of hours used by the company's coal engines increased by 374 hours to 4,599 hours year on year, and the number of hours used by combustion engines increased 91 hours to 3039 hours year on year, driving a 6% year-on-year increase in thermal power generation to 226.6 billion kilowatt-hours; thermal power prices increased slightly year on year. On the cost side, the company's fuel cost per unit of thermal power generation decreased by 27.21 yuan/megawatt-hour year on year in 2023. Combined with the impact of electricity growth, the company's electricity fuel costs fell 2.25% year on year to 66.553 billion yuan. Taken together, the company achieved a total profit of 133 million yuan in 2023, with losses narrowing sharply; combustion engines (including heat) achieved a total profit of 392 million yuan, turning a loss into a profit.
Scenery: 3.6 GW of installed capacity was added in 23, contributing a total profit of 3 billion yuan. The company vigorously promoted the low-carbon clean energy transition. In 2023, the company added 2 GW of installed wind power and 1.6 GW of photovoltaics. By the end of 2023, the company's wind power installed capacity was 7.5 GW, accounting for 10.18%; photovoltaic power generation was 4.4 GW, accounting for about 5.96%. Judging from the actual operating situation in 2023, the company's wind resources were relatively good, and the utilization of hours increased year on year. In 2023, the company completed wind power generation capacity of 14.48 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 16.95% year on year; the growth rate of PV installed capacity was high, which led to a 60.79% year-on-year increase in photovoltaic power generation to 4.111 billion kilowatt-hours. Taken together, the company's total profit in 2023 was 3,036 billion yuan, an increase of 11% over the previous year.
Hydropower: Incoming water is weak, and total profit declined year-on-year
The company's hydropower installation is relatively stable, mostly located in the southwest region. By the end of 2023, the company's hydropower installed capacity was about 9.2 GW. Water was weak in 2023. The company's hydropower usage hours fell 370 hours year on year, and led to a 10.31% year-on-year decline in hydropower generation. The utility cost side is relatively stable. Taken together, the company's hydropower contributed a total of 1,383 billion yuan in profit, a year-on-year decrease of about 15%.
Investment advice:
Taking into account the company's cost situation during the 23-year period, the decline in coal prices, and the slight year-on-year weakening of the country's landscape resources from January to January 2024, the profit forecast for 2024-2025 was lowered. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 43, 54, 63 billion yuan (4.94 billion yuan before 2024-2025), corresponding to 13, 10, and 9 times PE, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of a sharp decline in the macroeconomy, the risk of a sharp rise in coal prices, the risk of lower electricity prices, lower downstream demand than expected, the risk of industry competition being too intense, the risk of continuing delays in subsidies, project construction progress falling short of expectations, etc.
