The company disclosed its 2023 annual report on March 26
In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 2,955 billion yuan (+12.68%), net profit of 671 million yuan (-12.51%), net profit after deduction of 594 million yuan (-18.64%), and basic earnings per share of 0.24 yuan (-11.11%). The company's 2023 ROE was 3.89%, down 0.73 pct from the same period last year.
Deepening the transformation of wealth management
The company achieved net brokerage revenue of 515 million yuan (6.30%), and brokerage business revenue declined slightly, mainly due to the decline in market sentiment and the downturn in the fund market. Net revenue from the securities brokerage business (380 million yuan, -10.77%) and the consignment financial products business (333 million yuan, -22.35%) declined rapidly. The company continues to promote wealth management business. On the one hand, the company continues to promote fund investment business. By the end of 2023, the number of fund investment customers signed up for the company was 302,000 (+24.93%), and the authorized account assets were 6.594 billion yuan (-4.16%). On the other side, the company's fund sales strategy changed to allocation-based sales. The sales scale of the company's fund products declined (18.403 billion yuan, -14.76%), but there was a steady increase in financial product holdings, reaching a scale of 19.330 billion yuan (+8.16%). In 2024, as the market recovers, the company's layout results in various business lines of wealth management are expected to gradually translate into performance implementation.
Refinancing dragged down equity underwriting regulations, and the scale of bond underwriting increased, and the company achieved net income of 489 million yuan (+2.47%) from the investment banking business and a total underwriting scale of 3,956 billion yuan (-23.92%). The company's equity underwriting scale is 3,956 billion yuan (-23.92%), which is higher than the 32.80% growth rate of the industry. Among them, the equity underwriting IPO scale was 2,368 billion yuan (-1.33%), and the refinancing scale was 1,588 billion yuan (-43.29%). The company achieved a bond underwriting scale of 51,581 billion yuan (+30.94%), of which the corporate bond underwriting scale increased dramatically (49.271 billion yuan, +41.19%), contributing 95.52% to the total underwriting scale of bonds. Currently, the number of the company's IPO sponsors ranks 21st in the industry. Following the integration with Minsheng Securities, which has strong strength with... investment banks, the strength of investment banks is expected to increase one step further.
The public offering transformation of asset management business is progressing steadily
The company's asset management business achieved net revenue of 443 million yuan (+128.54%). During the reporting period, the company's asset management business welcomed multiple benefits: (1) Active management transformation was successful. The asset management business scale reached 117.293 billion yuan (+14.94%) in 2023, of which public funds (including large pools) had assets of 8.773 billion yuan (+21.75%), and the pooled asset management business reached 20.957 billion yuan (+79.64%), accounting for 17.87%, an increase of 6.42 pct over 2022; (2) The company acquired 75.5% of China Finance Fund's shares during the reporting period. The consolidated statement shows that the company's asset management business was fast The main reason for the growth. As of the end of 2023, the total asset management scale of the League of Nations Fund was 148.767 billion yuan. From the date of acquisition to the end of the reporting period, it achieved operating income of 239 million yuan, realized net profit of 30 million yuan, and contributed 38.64% to asset management business revenue. (3) The company obtained approval for the establishment of an asset management subsidiary in September 2023, and may continue to apply for a public fund license in the future. The company is steadily advancing the “one participation - control - one card” public offering layout, and the profitability of the asset management business is expected to gradually improve.
Asset-heavy business
The company's own business revenue was 1,243 billion yuan (+7.31%). The company focused on allocating bonds, public funds, private equity funds, and stocks, which accounted for 57.05%, 12.17%, 11.55%, and 8.45% of transactional financial assets respectively. Among them, the share of private equity funds decreased by 8.18 pcts, and the share of stock allocation increased by 5.1 lpcts. The overall configuration strategy remains essentially the same as last year.
The company's net interest income was 801 million yuan (-32.51%), mainly due to a sharp increase in interest expenses for the sale and repurchase of financial assets. Looking at specific business performance, the Liangfinance business increased steadily, with an average daily balance of 10.231 billion yuan (+10.72%), achieving interest income of 606 million yuan (+6.69%) from the Liangfinance business; the company continued to reduce the scale and risk of stock pledges, and the stock pledge scale reached 2,394 billion yuan (-37.93%).
Investment advice
Guolian Securities has “pan-wealth management” as its core. The fund investment business is seizing opportunities, and the public fund layout is progressing steadily. In the future, the integration of Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities will gradually be implemented, and the overall strength is expected to increase step by step. We forecast that the company's basic earnings per share for 2024-2026 will be 0.26 yuan, 0.29 yuan, and 0.34 yuan, respectively, and the net assets per share will be 6.47 yuan, 6.69 yuan, and 6.95 yuan, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of market fluctuations, market activity falling short of expectations, increased competition in the fund sales market